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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Campionato Primavera - 2 › Monopoli U19 v Benevento U19

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Monopoli U19 v Benevento U19

Monopoli U19
2–2Full time
Benevento U19

Campionato Primavera - 2 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26
Monopoli U19 2–2 Benevento U19 BENEVENTO U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Benevento U19 win42%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.847
The market’s Brier score0.822

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Benevento U19 win at 42%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Benevento U19 was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 33–25–42
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Monopoli U19 v Benevento U19
  4. 10′Benevento U19 find the net on 10′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–18–67
  5. 10′We published Benevento U19 at 42%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 14–18–67
  6. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Monopoli U19 0–1 Benevento U19
  7. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Benevento U19 win: 42% at kick-off, 67% now
  8. 29′A goal for Monopoli U19 on 29′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–31–38
  9. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Monopoli U19 1–1 Benevento U19
  10. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Benevento U19 win: 42% at kick-off, 38% now
  11. 45′Benevento U19 score on 44′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 9–20–71
  12. 45′We published Benevento U19 at 42%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–2 · 9–20–71
  13. 45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Monopoli U19 1–2 Benevento U19
  14. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Benevento U19 win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Monopoli U19 1–2 Benevento U19
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Monopoli U19 1–2 Benevento U19
  17. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Benevento U19 win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
  18. 58′We published Benevento U19 at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 6–20–75
  19. 60′Benevento U19 find the net on 60′. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
  20. 60′We published Benevento U19 at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–3 · 1–4–95
  21. 60′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–4–95
  22. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Monopoli U19 1–3 Benevento U19
  23. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Benevento U19 win: 42% at kick-off, 95% now
  24. 61′GOAL DISALLOWED · 61' Benevento U19
  25. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Benevento U19 win: 42% at kick-off, 76% now
  26. 69′We published Benevento U19 at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  27. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Benevento U19 win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
  28. 77′We published Benevento U19 at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 1–13–85
  29. 78′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–2 · 1–13–86
  30. 78′Monopoli U19 find the net on 78′. 2–2. 2–2 · 14–70–16
  31. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Monopoli U19 2–2 Benevento U19
  32. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Benevento U19 win: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
  33. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Benevento U19 win 16%)
  34. 79′We said Benevento U19 at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 2–2 · 13–72–15
  35. 81′Monopoli U19 find the net on 78′. 2–2. 2–2 · 11–76–13
  36. 81′We said Benevento U19 at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 11–76–13
  37. 82′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 10–78–12
  38. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Benevento U19 win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  39. 84′We said Benevento U19 at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 8–83–9
  40. FTFULL TIME Monopoli U19 2–2 Benevento U19
  41. FTMonopoli U19 2–2 Benevento U19 · Benevento U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Benevento U19 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Monopoli U19 33%, draw 25%, Benevento U19 42%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Monopoli U19 v Benevento U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Monopoli U19 win33%
Draw25%
Benevento U19 win42%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Monopoli U19

Benevento U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Benevento U194+99
8Monopoli U194+37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · benevento u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
42% The market38%
Us42%
Market38%

We make Benevento U19 a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Monopoli U19 v Benevento U191.41 – 1.61
Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 SeptW2 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L1
Table places · points 7 v 98 v 3
The market · Benevento U19 win38% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0317 OCT 12:53
Our probability · Benevento U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Monopoli U19 win33%36%−3
Draw25%26%−1
Benevento U19 win42%38%+4
Over 2.5 goals58%57%+1
Both teams to score60%60%0
Over 1.5 goals80%78%+2
Over 3.5 goals36%37%−1
Monopoli U19 or draw58%62%−4
Monopoli U19 clean sheet21%––
Benevento U19 clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 5.7 7.4 6.3 3.4 1 6.4 11.5 8.7 4.7 2 4.9 7.6 6.1 3.3 3 2.3 3.6 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Monopoli U19 down, Benevento U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting1.75
Over 2.53 of 8
Both scored2 of 8
Last meetingsBEN 0–3 MON · MON 1–2 BEN · MON 1–0 BEN · BEN 2–2 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

MONOPOLI U19

WLDW4–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 2–0

BENEVENTO U19

WLWW3–0 · 1–3 · 5–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27 · group 2
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Catanzaro U194+1112
2Perugia U194+1112
3Benevento U194+99
4Avellino U194+49
5Bari U194+58
6Palermo U194+38
7Pescara U194+37
8Monopoli U194+37
9Spezia U19404
10Latina U194−14
11Napoli U194−24
12Pisa U194−43
13Ascoli U194−42
14Frosinone U194−101
15Cosenza U194−120
16Salernitana U194−160

The competition's standings before kick-off.