Modena U19 v Reggiana U19 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Modena U19 0–0 Reggiana U19 MODENA U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Modena U19 win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.968

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Modena U19 win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Modena U19 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
1′KICK-OFF Modena U19 v Reggiana U19
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Modena U19 win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
45′HALF-TIME Modena U19 0–0 Reggiana U19
46′SECOND HALF Modena U19 0–0 Reggiana U19
47′We said Modena U19 at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–34–22
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 40–39–21
56′We said Modena U19 at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–21
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Modena U19 win 40%)
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Modena U19 win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
64′We said Modena U19 at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
71′We said Modena U19 at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
75′We said Modena U19 at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–14
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Modena U19 win: 55% at kick-off, 24% now
80′We said Modena U19 at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–71–11
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Modena U19 win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
83′We said Modena U19 at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
87′We said Modena U19 at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Modena U19 win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
92′We said Modena U19 at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Modena U19 0–0 Reggiana U19
FTModena U19 0–0 Reggiana U19 · Modena U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Modena U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Modena U19 55%, draw 22%, Reggiana U19 23%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Modena U19 v Reggiana U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Modena U19 win55%

Draw22%

Reggiana U19 win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Modena U19

Reggiana U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Modena U19	5	−1	4
16	Reggiana U19	5	−7	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · modena u19 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Modena U19 a 55% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Modena U19 v Reggiana U19~~2.09 – 1.29

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L3 · W0 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 4 v 1~~14 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Modena U19 win	55%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Reggiana U19 win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Modena U19 or draw	77%	–	–
Modena U19 clean sheet	28%	–	–
Reggiana U19 clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.1 4.1 2.9 1 6.8 9.6 5.9 2.6 2 7.4 9.3 6.0 2.6 3 5.1 6.5 4.2 4 2.7 3.4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Modena U19 down, Reggiana U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,370 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Modena U19 at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Reggiana U19 away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Modena U19, 1.29 for Reggiana U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~REG 1–2 MOD · MOD 2–2 REG · MOD 9–0 REG · REG 2–0 MOD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

MODENA U19

WLDLL4–0 · 2–4 · 4–4 · 1–2 · 0–2

REGGIANA U19

LLDLL1–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27 · Primavera 2 U19 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sampdoria U19	5	+10	11
2	Vicenza U19	5	+7	11
3	Renate U19	5	+6	11
4	Cremonese U19	5	+4	9
5	Virtus Entella U19	5	+3	8
6	Venezia U19	5	+1	7
7	Cittadella U19	5	−1	7
8	Brescia U19	5	−3	7
9	Mantova U19	5	+2	6
10	Padova U19	5	−3	6
11	Udinese U19	5	−5	6
12	Pro Vercelli U19	5	−4	5
13	Lecco U19	5	−6	5
14	Modena U19	5	−1	4
15	Sudtirol U19	5	−3	4
16	Reggiana U19	5	−7	1