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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Campionato Primavera - 2 › Modena U19 v Cremonese U19

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Modena U19 v Cremonese U19

Modena U19
0–2Full time
Cremonese U19

Campionato Primavera - 2 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Modena U19 0–2 Cremonese U19 CREMONESE U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Cremonese U19 win42%
The market said28%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.518
The market’s Brier score0.809

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Cremonese U19 win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Cremonese U19 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 36–22–42
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Modena U19 v Cremonese U19
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Modena U19 0–0 Cremonese U19
  5. 46′SECOND HALF Modena U19 0–0 Cremonese U19
  6. 50′Little has changed for our model: Cremonese U19 42% before kick-off, 34% now. 0–0 · 31–35–34
  7. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–38–33
  8. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Cremonese U19 win 33%)
  9. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Cremonese U19 win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  10. 61′We said Cremonese U19 at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 27–43–30
  11. 63′We said Cremonese U19 at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 26–44–29
  12. 64′Cremonese U19 score on 63′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–20–74
  13. 64′We said Cremonese U19 at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 6–20–74
  14. 64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Modena U19 0–1 Cremonese U19
  15. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Cremonese U19 win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
  16. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Cremonese U19 win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
  17. 65′We said Cremonese U19 at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
  18. 74′We said Cremonese U19 at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  19. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Cremonese U19 win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
  20. 80′We said Cremonese U19 at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
  21. 83′Cremonese U19 find the net on 82′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  22. 83′We said Cremonese U19 at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  23. 83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Modena U19 0–2 Cremonese U19
  24. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Cremonese U19 win: 42% at kick-off, 99% now
  25. 85′We said Cremonese U19 at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  26. FTFULL TIME Modena U19 0–2 Cremonese U19
  27. FTModena U19 0–2 Cremonese U19 · Cremonese U19 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cremonese U19 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Modena U19 36%, draw 22%, Cremonese U19 42%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Modena U19 v Cremonese U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Modena U19 win36%
Draw22%
Cremonese U19 win42%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Modena U19

Cremonese U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Cremonese U194+26
10Modena U194+14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cremonese u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
42% The market28%
Us42%
Market28%

We make Cremonese U19 a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Modena U19 v Cremonese U191.74 – 1.90
Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 SeptW1 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L2
Table places · points 4 v 610 v 7
The market · Cremonese U19 win28% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0317 OCT 13:26
Our probability · Cremonese U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Modena U19 win36%48%−12
Draw22%24%−2
Cremonese U19 win42%28%+14
Over 2.5 goals70%62%+8
Both teams to score69%63%+6
Over 1.5 goals88%82%+6
Over 3.5 goals49%42%+7
Modena U19 or draw58%72%−14
Modena U19 clean sheet16%––
Cremonese U19 clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%
0123450 3.4 4.7 4.8 3.0 1 4.4 9.0 7.9 5.0 2.4 2 4.1 7.4 6.7 4.2 2.1 3 2.4 4.3 3.9 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Modena U19 down, Cremonese U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

MODENA U19

WLDL4–0 · 2–4 · 4–4 · 1–2

CREMONESE U19

WWLL4–0 · 3–1 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · group 1
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vicenza U194+710
2Sampdoria U194+68
3Renate U194+58
4Virtus Entella U194+37
5Brescia U194+17
6Mantova U194+36
7Cremonese U194+26
8Padova U194−26
9Udinese U194−46
10Modena U194+14
11Venezia U19404
12Cittadella U194−24
13Lecco U194−64
14Sudtirol U194−33
15Pro Vercelli U194−62
16Reggiana U194−51

The competition's standings before kick-off.