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Lecco U19 v Sudtirol U19

Lecco U19

2–2Full time

Sudtirol U19

Campionato Primavera - 2 · SAT 17 OCT · Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Lecco U19 2–2 Sudtirol U19 LECCO U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lecco U19 win~~46%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.855

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.845

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lecco U19 win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lecco U19 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–29
1′KICK-OFF Lecco U19 v Sudtirol U19
7′Little has changed for our model: Lecco U19 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
9′Sudtirol U19 find the net on 9′. 0–1. 0–1 · 23–22–55
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Lecco U19 0–1 Sudtirol U19
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Lecco U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 23% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Sudtirol U19 win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Lecco U19 win 23%)
10′We said Lecco U19 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–22–55
11′A goal for Lecco U19 on 11′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 45–27–29
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Lecco U19 1–1 Sudtirol U19
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Lecco U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Lecco U19 win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Sudtirol U19 win 29%)
20′Sudtirol U19 score on 20′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 20–23–57
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Lecco U19 1–2 Sudtirol U19
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Lecco U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Sudtirol U19 win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Lecco U19 win 20%)
22′We said Lecco U19 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–23–57
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 17–24–59
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Lecco U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
40′We said Lecco U19 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–24–61
45′HALF-TIME Lecco U19 1–2 Sudtirol U19
46′SECOND HALF Lecco U19 1–2 Sudtirol U19
55′We said Lecco U19 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Lecco U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
66′We said Lecco U19 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 2–2 · 27–53–20
66′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 27–53–20
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Lecco U19 2–2 Sudtirol U19
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Lecco U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 27% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Sudtirol U19 win 20%)
67′GOAL DISALLOWED · 67' Lecco U19
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Lecco U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 5% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Sudtirol U19 win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 21%)
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Lecco U19 2–2 Sudtirol U19
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Lecco U19 win: 46% at kick-off, 27% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Sudtirol U19 win 19%)
70′We said Lecco U19 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
86′Lecco U19 find the net on 86′. 2–2. 2–2 · 8–86–6
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Lecco U19 2–2 Sudtirol U19
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Sudtirol U19 win 6%)
FTFULL TIME Lecco U19 2–2 Sudtirol U19
FTLecco U19 2–2 Sudtirol U19 · Lecco U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lecco U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lecco U19 46%, draw 25%, Sudtirol U19 29%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Lecco U19 v Sudtirol U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lecco U19 win46%

Draw25%

Sudtirol U19 win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueStadio Rigamonti Ceppi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lecco U19

Sudtirol U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Lecco U19	4	−6	4
14	Sudtirol U19	4	−3	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lecco u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market45%

Us46%

~~Market~~45%

We make Lecco U19 a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lecco U19 v Sudtirol U19~~1.66 – 1.26

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W0 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 3~~13 v 14

~~The market · Lecco U19 win~~45% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lecco U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lecco U19 win	46%	45%	+1
Draw	25%	25%	0
Sudtirol U19 win	29%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	54%	+2
Both teams to score	58%	57%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	34%	−1
Lecco U19 or draw	71%	70%	+1
Lecco U19 clean sheet	29%	–	–
Sudtirol U19 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.2 6.4 4.4 1 8.5 11.7 7.0 3.0 2 7.4 9.1 5.7 2.4 3 4.1 5.0 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lecco U19 down, Sudtirol U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,354 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lecco U19 at home: 1.17 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sudtirol U19 away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Lecco U19, 1.26 for Sudtirol U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LEC 2–1 SUD · SUD 1–1 LEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

LECCO U19

LDLW0–4 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 1–0

SUDTIROL U19

LDDD0–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vicenza U19	4	+7	10
2	Sampdoria U19	4	+6	8
3	Renate U19	4	+5	8
4	Virtus Entella U19	4	+3	7
5	Brescia U19	4	+1	7
6	Mantova U19	4	+3	6
7	Cremonese U19	4	+2	6
8	Padova U19	4	−2	6
9	Udinese U19	4	−4	6
10	Modena U19	4	+1	4
11	Venezia U19	4	0	4
12	Cittadella U19	4	−2	4
13	Lecco U19	4	−6	4
14	Sudtirol U19	4	−3	3
15	Pro Vercelli U19	4	−6	2
16	Reggiana U19	4	−5	1