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Latina U19 v Bari U19

Latina U19

0–0Full time

Bari U19

Campionato Primavera - 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:08

Latina U19 0–0 Bari U19 LATINA U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Latina U19 win~~45%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.877

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.834

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Latina U19 win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Latina U19 was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
1′KICK-OFF Latina U19 v Bari U19
45′HALF-TIME Latina U19 0–0 Bari U19
46′SECOND HALF Latina U19 0–0 Bari U19
55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 34–41–25
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Latina U19 win: 45% at kick-off, 34% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Latina U19 win 34%)
64′We said Latina U19 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
68′PENALTY MISSED · 68' Latina U19
FTFULL TIME Latina U19 0–0 Bari U19
FTLatina U19 0–0 Bari U19 · Latina U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Latina U19 win45%

Draw24%

Bari U19 win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 10:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · latina u19 winPublished 10 Oct 10:08

45% The market35%

Us45%

~~Market~~35%

We make Latina U19 a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · latina u19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Latina U19 win	45%	35%	+10
Draw	24%	25%	−2
Bari U19 win	31%	40%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	61%	58%	+2
Both teams to score	62%	62%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	37%	+2
Latina U19 or draw	69%	60%	+9
Latina U19 clean sheet	25%	–	–
Bari U19 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.1 5.6 4.3 2.1 1 7.0 10.7 7.1 3.4 2 6.5 8.8 6.1 2.9 3 3.8 5.1 3.6 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Latina U19 down, Bari U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,338 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Latina U19 at home: 4.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 1). Bari U19 away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Latina U19, 1.42 for Bari U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Campionato Primavera - 2

LATINA U19

LWL0–2 · 4–1 · 1–3

BARI U19

WWLWWD4–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Perugia U19	3	+10	9
2	Catanzaro U19	3	+9	9
3	Avellino U19	3	+5	9
4	Bari U19	3	+5	7
5	Renate U19	3	+5	7
6	Vicenza U19	3	+5	7
7	Palermo U19	3	+3	7
8	Benevento U19	3	+6	6
9	Cremonese U19	3	+3	6
10	Virtus Entella U19	3	+3	6
11	Padova U19	3	+2	6
12	Mantova U19	3	+3	5
13	Sampdoria U19	3	+2	5
14	Modena U19	3	+2	4
15	Spezia U19	3	+2	4
16	Venezia U19	3	+1	4
17	Monopoli U19	3	+1	4
18	Brescia U19	3	0	4
19	Pescara U19	3	0	4
20	Latina U19	3	−1	3
21	Cittadella U19	3	−2	3
22	Pisa U19	3	−3	3
23	Udinese U19	3	−5	3
24	Ascoli U19	3	−1	2
25	Sudtirol U19	3	−3	2
26	Napoli U19	3	−3	1
27	Reggiana U19	3	−3	1
28	Pro Vercelli U19	3	−6	1
29	Lecco U19	3	−7	1
30	Frosinone U19	3	−10	0
31	Cosenza U19	3	−10	0
32	Salernitana U19	3	−13	0