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Frosinone U19 v Palermo U19

Frosinone U19

0–0Full time

Palermo U19

Campionato Primavera - 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Frosinone U19 0–0 Palermo U19 FROSINONE U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Frosinone U19 win~~48%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.879

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.833

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Frosinone U19 win at 48%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Frosinone U19 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–27
2′KICK-OFF Frosinone U19 v Palermo U19
45′HALF-TIME Frosinone U19 0–0 Palermo U19
46′SECOND HALF Frosinone U19 0–0 Palermo U19
53′We said Frosinone U19 at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–41–23
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Frosinone U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 36% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Frosinone U19 win 36%)
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Frosinone U19 0–1 Palermo U19
FTFULL TIME Frosinone U19 0–0 Palermo U19
FTFrosinone U19 0–0 Palermo U19 · Frosinone U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Frosinone U19 win48%

Draw24%

Palermo U19 win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · frosinone u19 winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

48% The market38%

Us48%

~~Market~~38%

We make Frosinone U19 a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · frosinone u19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Frosinone U19 win	48%	38%	+10
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Palermo U19 win	27%	36%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	57%	56%	+1
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	35%	0
Frosinone U19 or draw	73%	64%	+9
Frosinone U19 clean sheet	30%	–	–
Palermo U19 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.0 5.9 4.0 1 8.5 11.3 6.6 2.8 2 7.7 9.1 5.6 2.4 3 4.5 5.3 3.3 4 2.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Frosinone U19 down, Palermo U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,338 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Frosinone U19 at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Palermo U19 away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Frosinone U19, 1.24 for Palermo U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FRO 5–0 PAL · PAL 0–0 FRO

Form · last six in Campionato Primavera - 2

FROSINONE U19

DLDLLL0–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–6

PALERMO U19

DLLWWD1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Perugia U19	3	+10	9
2	Catanzaro U19	3	+9	9
3	Avellino U19	3	+5	9
4	Bari U19	3	+5	7
5	Renate U19	3	+5	7
6	Vicenza U19	3	+5	7
7	Palermo U19	3	+3	7
8	Benevento U19	3	+6	6
9	Cremonese U19	3	+3	6
10	Virtus Entella U19	3	+3	6
11	Padova U19	3	+2	6
12	Mantova U19	3	+3	5
13	Sampdoria U19	3	+2	5
14	Modena U19	3	+2	4
15	Spezia U19	3	+2	4
16	Venezia U19	3	+1	4
17	Monopoli U19	3	+1	4
18	Brescia U19	3	0	4
19	Pescara U19	3	0	4
20	Latina U19	3	−1	3
21	Cittadella U19	3	−2	3
22	Pisa U19	3	−3	3
23	Udinese U19	3	−5	3
24	Ascoli U19	3	−1	2
25	Sudtirol U19	3	−3	2
26	Napoli U19	3	−3	1
27	Reggiana U19	3	−3	1
28	Pro Vercelli U19	3	−6	1
29	Lecco U19	3	−7	1
30	Frosinone U19	3	−10	0
31	Cosenza U19	3	−10	0
32	Salernitana U19	3	−13	0