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Cremonese U19 v Udinese U19

Cremonese U19

1–2Full time

Udinese U19

Campionato Primavera - 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:08

Cremonese U19 1–2 Udinese U19 CREMONESE U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cremonese U19 win~~65%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.122

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.913

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cremonese U19 win at 65%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cremonese U19 was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–17–17
1′KICK-OFF Cremonese U19 v Udinese U19
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Cremonese U19 0–1 Udinese U19
11′A goal for Udinese U19 on 4′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 42–22–36
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Cremonese U19 win: 65% at kick-off, 42% now
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Cremonese U19 1–1 Udinese U19
22′17′ and it is 1–1: Cremonese U19 have scored. 1–1 · 61–21–18
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Cremonese U19 win: 65% at kick-off, 61% now
40′Goals are coming at about the 4.1 we expected. 1–1 · 55–26–19
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Cremonese U19 win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
45′We said Cremonese U19 at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 53%. 1–1 · 53–28–19
45′HALF-TIME Cremonese U19 1–1 Udinese U19
46′SECOND HALF Cremonese U19 1–1 Udinese U19
57′We said Cremonese U19 at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–35–18
66′We said Cremonese U19 at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 40–43–17
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Cremonese U19 win: 65% at kick-off, 40% now
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Cremonese U19 1–2 Udinese U19
FTFULL TIME Cremonese U19 1–2 Udinese U19
FTCremonese U19 1–2 Udinese U19 · Cremonese U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cremonese U19 win65%

Draw17%

Udinese U19 win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 10:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cremonese u19 winPublished 10 Oct 10:08

65% The market53%

Us65%

~~Market~~53%

We make Cremonese U19 a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cremonese u19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cremonese U19 win	65%	53%	+12
Draw	17%	23%	−6
Udinese U19 win	18%	24%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	76%	64%	+12
Both teams to score	68%	64%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	91%	83%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	58%	44%	+14
Cremonese U19 or draw	82%	76%	+6
Cremonese U19 clean sheet	26%	–	–
Udinese U19 clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.3 2.2 1 4.5 6.7 4.4 2.0 2 6.1 8.1 5.5 2.6 3 5.4 7.1 4.8 2.2 4 3.7 4.8 3.2 5 2.2 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Cremonese U19 down, Udinese U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,338 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cremonese U19 at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Udinese U19 away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.74 goals for Cremonese U19, 1.37 for Udinese U19. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CRE 1–4 UDI · UDI 1–2 CRE · CRE 1–2 UDI · UDI 0–0 CRE

Form · last six in Campionato Primavera - 2

CREMONESE U19

WWDWWL2–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 1–4

UDINESE U19

DWLLLW1–1 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 2–4 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Perugia U19	3	+10	9
2	Catanzaro U19	3	+9	9
3	Avellino U19	3	+5	9
4	Bari U19	3	+5	7
5	Renate U19	3	+5	7
6	Vicenza U19	3	+5	7
7	Palermo U19	3	+3	7
8	Benevento U19	3	+6	6
9	Cremonese U19	3	+3	6
10	Virtus Entella U19	3	+3	6
11	Padova U19	3	+2	6
12	Mantova U19	3	+3	5
13	Sampdoria U19	3	+2	5
14	Modena U19	3	+2	4
15	Spezia U19	3	+2	4
16	Venezia U19	3	+1	4
17	Monopoli U19	3	+1	4
18	Brescia U19	3	0	4
19	Pescara U19	3	0	4
20	Latina U19	3	−1	3
21	Cittadella U19	3	−2	3
22	Pisa U19	3	−3	3
23	Udinese U19	3	−5	3
24	Ascoli U19	3	−1	2
25	Sudtirol U19	3	−3	2
26	Napoli U19	3	−3	1
27	Reggiana U19	3	−3	1
28	Pro Vercelli U19	3	−6	1
29	Lecco U19	3	−7	1
30	Frosinone U19	3	−10	0
31	Cosenza U19	3	−10	0
32	Salernitana U19	3	−13	0