Cittadella U19 v Padova U19 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Cittadella U19 0–2 Padova U19 CITTADELLA U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cittadella U19 win~~47%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.795

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.777

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cittadella U19 win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cittadella U19 was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Cittadella U19 v Padova U19
45′HALF-TIME Cittadella U19 0–0 Padova U19
46′SECOND HALF Cittadella U19 0–0 Padova U19
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Cittadella U19 win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
52′We said Cittadella U19 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–40–24
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Cittadella U19 win 38%)
55′We said Cittadella U19 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–42–23
55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 34–42–23
64′We said Cittadella U19 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
66′Padova U19 score on 66′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–22–72
66′We said Cittadella U19 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–22–72
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Cittadella U19 0–1 Padova U19
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Cittadella U19 win: 47% at kick-off, 6% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Padova U19 win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 52%)
71′We said Cittadella U19 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
95′Padova U19 find the net on 90′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Cittadella U19 0–2 Padova U19
FTFULL TIME Cittadella U19 0–2 Padova U19
FTCittadella U19 0–2 Padova U19 · Cittadella U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cittadella U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cittadella U19 47%, draw 25%, Padova U19 28%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Cittadella U19 v Padova U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Cittadella U19 win47%

Draw25%

Padova U19 win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cittadella U19

Padova U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Cittadella U19	5	−1	7
10	Padova U19	5	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cittadella u19 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

47% The market46%

Us47%

~~Market~~46%

We make Cittadella U19 a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cittadella U19 v Padova U19~~1.73 – 1.29

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~7 v 10

~~The market · Cittadella U19 win~~46% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cittadella U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cittadella U19 win	47%	46%	+1
Draw	25%	25%	0
Padova U19 win	28%	29%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	56%	+2
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Cittadella U19 or draw	72%	71%	+1
Cittadella U19 clean sheet	28%	–	–
Padova U19 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.6 5.9 4.1 1 8.0 11.3 6.9 3.0 2 7.3 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 4.2 5.3 3.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cittadella U19 down, Padova U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,370 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cittadella U19 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Padova U19 away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Cittadella U19, 1.29 for Padova U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PAD 1–0 CIT · CIT 1–0 PAD · CIT 1–0 PAD · PAD 2–0 CIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

CITTADELLA U19

LWLDW2–5 · 4–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–1

PADOVA U19

WWLLL4–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 0–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · Primavera 2 U19 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sampdoria U19	5	+10	11
2	Vicenza U19	5	+7	11
3	Renate U19	5	+6	11
4	Cremonese U19	5	+4	9
5	Virtus Entella U19	5	+3	8
6	Venezia U19	5	+1	7
7	Cittadella U19	5	−1	7
8	Brescia U19	5	−3	7
9	Mantova U19	5	+2	6
10	Padova U19	5	−3	6
11	Udinese U19	5	−5	6
12	Pro Vercelli U19	5	−4	5
13	Lecco U19	5	−6	5
14	Modena U19	5	−1	4
15	Sudtirol U19	5	−3	4
16	Reggiana U19	5	−7	1