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Brescia U19 v Modena U19

Brescia U19

2–1Full time

Modena U19

Campionato Primavera - 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Brescia U19 2–1 Modena U19 MODENA U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Modena U19 win~~44%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.706

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.565

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Modena U19 win at 44%.
4′KICK-OFF Brescia U19 v Modena U19
5′Little has changed for our model: Modena U19 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Brescia U19 1–0 Modena U19
23′A goal for Brescia U19 on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 59–23–19
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Modena U19 win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Brescia U19 win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Modena U19 win 19%)
39′⚽ GOAL · 9' Brescia U19 1–0 Modena U19
44′We said Modena U19 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 63–24–13
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Modena U19 win: 44% at kick-off, 13% now
45′HALF-TIME Brescia U19 1–0 Modena U19
49′SECOND HALF Brescia U19 1–0 Modena U19
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Brescia U19 1–1 Modena U19
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Brescia U19 2–1 Modena U19
FTFULL TIME Brescia U19 2–1 Modena U19
FTBrescia U19 2–1 Modena U19 · Modena U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Brescia U19 win32%

Draw24%

Modena U19 win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · modena u19 winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

44% The market36%

Us44%

~~Market~~36%

We make Modena U19 a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · modena u19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brescia U19 win	32%	39%	−7
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Modena U19 win	44%	36%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	61%	58%	+3
Both teams to score	63%	61%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	39%	37%	+2
Brescia U19 or draw	56%	64%	−8
Brescia U19 clean sheet	18%	–	–
Modena U19 clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.9 6.7 6.2 3.6 1 5.6 10.8 8.7 5.1 2.2 2 4.4 7.4 6.3 3.7 3 2.2 3.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brescia U19 down, Modena U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,338 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brescia U19 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Modena U19 away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Brescia U19, 1.73 for Modena U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BRE 1–3 MOD · MOD 2–1 BRE · BRE 3–1 MOD · MOD 2–0 BRE

Form · last six in Campionato Primavera - 2

BRESCIA U19

WLLLWD1–0 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 4–2 · 1–1

MODENA U19

DWLWLD0–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 4–0 · 2–4 · 4–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Perugia U19	3	+10	9
2	Catanzaro U19	3	+9	9
3	Avellino U19	3	+5	9
4	Bari U19	3	+5	7
5	Renate U19	3	+5	7
6	Vicenza U19	3	+5	7
7	Palermo U19	3	+3	7
8	Benevento U19	3	+6	6
9	Cremonese U19	3	+3	6
10	Virtus Entella U19	3	+3	6
11	Padova U19	3	+2	6
12	Mantova U19	3	+3	5
13	Sampdoria U19	3	+2	5
14	Modena U19	3	+2	4
15	Spezia U19	3	+2	4
16	Venezia U19	3	+1	4
17	Monopoli U19	3	+1	4
18	Brescia U19	3	0	4
19	Pescara U19	3	0	4
20	Latina U19	3	−1	3
21	Cittadella U19	3	−2	3
22	Pisa U19	3	−3	3
23	Udinese U19	3	−5	3
24	Ascoli U19	3	−1	2
25	Sudtirol U19	3	−3	2
26	Napoli U19	3	−3	1
27	Reggiana U19	3	−3	1
28	Pro Vercelli U19	3	−6	1
29	Lecco U19	3	−7	1
30	Frosinone U19	3	−10	0
31	Cosenza U19	3	−10	0
32	Salernitana U19	3	−13	0