Bari U19 v Pescara U19 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Bari U19 0–1 Pescara U19 BARI U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bari U19 win~~38%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.592

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.631

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bari U19 win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bari U19 was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–38
1′KICK-OFF Bari U19 v Pescara U19
45′HALF-TIME Bari U19 0–0 Pescara U19
46′SECOND HALF Bari U19 0–0 Pescara U19
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Bari U19 win 33%)
55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–42–29
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Bari U19 win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
62′We said Bari U19 at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–47–26
66′We said Bari U19 at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–51–24
74′We said Bari U19 at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Bari U19 win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
80′We said Bari U19 at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–14
84′We said Bari U19 at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Bari U19 win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
91′We said Bari U19 at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
92′A goal for Pescara U19 on 90′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–3–97
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Bari U19 0–1 Pescara U19
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Pescara U19 win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 92%)
FTFULL TIME Bari U19 0–1 Pescara U19
FTBari U19 0–1 Pescara U19 · Bari U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bari U19 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bari U19 38%, draw 25%, Pescara U19 38%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Bari U19 v Pescara U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Bari U19 win38%

Draw25%

Pescara U19 win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bari U19

Pescara U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Bari U19	5	+5	9
7	Pescara U19	5	+3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bari u19 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market38%

Us38%

~~Market~~38%

We make Bari U19 a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bari U19 v Pescara U19~~1.58 – 1.57

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L0 · W2 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~5 v 7

~~The market · Bari U19 win~~38% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bari U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bari U19 win	38%	38%	0
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Pescara U19 win	38%	36%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	61%	57%	+4
Both teams to score	63%	60%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	77%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	39%	37%	+2
Bari U19 or draw	62%	64%	−2
Bari U19 clean sheet	21%	–	–
Pescara U19 clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.1 6.3 5.3 2.8 1 6.3 11.0 8.2 4.3 2 5.4 8.2 6.3 3.3 3 2.8 4.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bari U19 down, Pescara U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,370 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.83 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bari U19 at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Pescara U19 away: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Bari U19, 1.57 for Pescara U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PES 1–0 BAR · BAR 3–3 PES · PES 3–2 BAR · BAR 1–3 PES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

BARI U19

WWDDD4–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

PESCARA U19

LWDWD1–3 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 5–2 · 3–3

The table

2026/27 · Primavera 2 U19 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Catanzaro U19	5	+12	15
2	Perugia U19	5	+10	12
3	Palermo U19	5	+4	11
4	Benevento U19	5	+9	10
5	Bari U19	5	+5	9
6	Avellino U19	5	+3	9
7	Pescara U19	5	+3	8
8	Monopoli U19	5	+3	8
9	Latina U19	5	+3	7
10	Pisa U19	5	−1	6
11	Napoli U19	5	−2	5
12	Spezia U19	5	−4	4
13	Frosinone U19	5	−9	4
14	Ascoli U19	5	−7	2
15	Salernitana U19	5	−16	1
16	Cosenza U19	5	−13	0