Ascoli U19 v Monopoli U19 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Ascoli U19 0–2 Monopoli U19 ASCOLI U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ascoli U19 win~~52%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.877

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.627

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ascoli U19 win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ascoli U19 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–23–25
1′KICK-OFF Ascoli U19 v Monopoli U19
36′Ascoli U19 are down to ten from 36′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 45–30–25
36′🟥 RED CARD · 36' Ascoli U19
38′Monopoli U19 find the net on 38′. 0–1. 0–1 · 19–25–56
38′We said Ascoli U19 at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Ascoli U19 0–1 Monopoli U19
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Ascoli U19 win: 52% at kick-off, 19% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Monopoli U19 win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Ascoli U19 win 44%)
45′HALF-TIME Ascoli U19 0–1 Monopoli U19
46′SECOND HALF Ascoli U19 0–1 Monopoli U19
51′We said Ascoli U19 at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Ascoli U19 win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
62′We said Ascoli U19 at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
74′We said Ascoli U19 at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Ascoli U19 win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
92′A goal for Monopoli U19 on 90′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Ascoli U19 0–2 Monopoli U19
FTFULL TIME Ascoli U19 0–2 Monopoli U19
FTAscoli U19 0–2 Monopoli U19 · Ascoli U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ascoli U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ascoli U19 52%, draw 22%, Monopoli U19 25%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Ascoli U19 v Monopoli U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ascoli U19 win52%

Draw22%

Monopoli U19 win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ascoli U19

Monopoli U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Monopoli U19	5	+3	8
14	Ascoli U19	5	−7	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ascoli u19 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

52% The market39%

Us52%

~~Market~~39%

We make Ascoli U19 a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ascoli U19 v Monopoli U19~~2.01 – 1.35

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 8~~14 v 8

~~The market · Ascoli U19 win~~39% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ascoli U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ascoli U19 win	52%	39%	+13
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Monopoli U19 win	25%	36%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	65%	59%	+6
Both teams to score	64%	62%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	77%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	43%	40%	+3
Ascoli U19 or draw	75%	64%	+11
Ascoli U19 clean sheet	26%	–	–
Monopoli U19 clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.2 4.3 3.2 1 6.6 9.8 6.3 2.9 2 7.0 9.2 6.2 2.8 3 4.7 6.2 4.1 4 2.4 3.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ascoli U19 down, Monopoli U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,370 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ascoli U19 at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Monopoli U19 away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Ascoli U19, 1.35 for Monopoli U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ASC 2–4 MON · MON 0–0 ASC · MON 1–4 ASC · ASC 5–3 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

ASCOLI U19

DLDLL1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–5 · 1–4

MONOPOLI U19

WLDWD4–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27 · Primavera 2 U19 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Catanzaro U19	5	+12	15
2	Perugia U19	5	+10	12
3	Palermo U19	5	+4	11
4	Benevento U19	5	+9	10
5	Bari U19	5	+5	9
6	Avellino U19	5	+3	9
7	Pescara U19	5	+3	8
8	Monopoli U19	5	+3	8
9	Latina U19	5	+3	7
10	Pisa U19	5	−1	6
11	Napoli U19	5	−2	5
12	Spezia U19	5	−4	4
13	Frosinone U19	5	−9	4
14	Ascoli U19	5	−7	2
15	Salernitana U19	5	−16	1
16	Cosenza U19	5	−13	0