Ascoli U19 v Avellino U19 prediction · Campionato Primavera

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ascoli U19DrawAvellino U19

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Ascoli U19 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ascoli U19 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ascoli U19 40%, draw 23%, Avellino U19 37%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Ascoli U19 v Avellino U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Ascoli U19 win40%

Draw23%

Avellino U19 win37%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ascoli U19

Avellino U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Avellino U19	6	0	9
14	Ascoli U19	6	−9	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ascoli u19 winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Ascoli U19 a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ascoli U19 v Avellino U19~~1.82 – 1.76

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 9~~14 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ascoli U19 win	40%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Avellino U19 win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Ascoli U19 or draw	63%	–	–
Ascoli U19 clean sheet	18%	–	–
Avellino U19 clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 4.6 4.4 2.6 1 4.8 9.4 7.7 4.5 2.0 2 4.7 8.0 6.8 4.0 3 2.9 4.8 4.1 2.4 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ascoli U19 down, Avellino U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,386 Campionato Primavera - 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.8% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ascoli U19 at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Avellino U19 away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Ascoli U19, 1.76 for Avellino U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ASC 1–2 AVE · AVE 1–1 ASC · ASC 3–0 AVE · AVE 2–1 ASC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

ASCOLI U19

DLDLLL1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–5 · 1–4 · 0–2

AVELLINO U19

WWWLLL3–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–5

The table

2026/27 · Primavera 2 U19 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Catanzaro U19	6	+13	18
2	Perugia U19	6	+15	15
3	Palermo U19	6	+5	14
4	Benevento U19	6	+12	13
5	Monopoli U19	6	+5	11
6	Pescara U19	6	+4	11
7	Bari U19	6	+4	9
8	Avellino U19	6	0	9
9	Latina U19	6	+3	8
10	Napoli U19	6	0	8
11	Pisa U19	6	−2	6
12	Spezia U19	6	−6	4
13	Frosinone U19	6	−14	4
14	Ascoli U19	6	−9	2
15	Cosenza U19	6	−13	1
16	Salernitana U19	6	−17	1