Sassuolo U20 v Torino U20

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sassuolo U20 win at 45%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Sassuolo U20 was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–31
3. 1′KICK-OFF Sassuolo U20 v Torino U20
4. 45′Torino U20 find the net on 45′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–24–64
5. 45′We said Sassuolo U20 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–24–64
6. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45+11' Sassuolo U20 0–1 Torino U20
7. 45′HALF-TIME Sassuolo U20 0–1 Torino U20
8. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sassuolo U20 win: 45% at kick-off, 13% now
9. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Torino U20 win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Draw 42%)
10. 46′Torino U20 ahead on 33′ through F. Conzato. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–24–64
11. 46′A red card for Torino U20 on 41′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 12–24–64
12. 46′🟥 RED CARD · 41' M. Carrascosa · Torino U20
13. 46′SECOND HALF Sassuolo U20 0–1 Torino U20
14. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Sassuolo U20 win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
15. 50′A goal for Sassuolo U20 on 50′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 35–39–27
16. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Sassuolo U20 1–1 Torino U20
17. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Sassuolo U20 win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
18. 51′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 34–39–26
19. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Sassuolo U20 win 36%)
20. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Torino U20 win 65%)
21. 54′We said Sassuolo U20 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–41–26 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
22. 55′We expected about 3.1 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 33–42–25 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
23. 56′Sassuolo U20 score on 56′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 75–19–6
24. 56′We published Sassuolo U20 at 45%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
25. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Sassuolo U20 2–1 Torino U20
26. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Sassuolo U20 win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
27. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Sassuolo U20 win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 42%)
28. 68′We published Sassuolo U20 at 45%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
29. 76′We published Sassuolo U20 at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
30. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Sassuolo U20 win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
31. 83′We published Sassuolo U20 at 45%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–1 · 91–9–0
32. 84′Torino U20 find the net on 84′. 2–2. 2–2 · 10–82–8
33. 84′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 10–82–8
34. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Sassuolo U20 2–2 Torino U20
35. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Sassuolo U20 win: 45% at kick-off, 10% now
36. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Sassuolo U20 win 92%)
37. 85′We said Sassuolo U20 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–84–7
38. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Sassuolo U20 win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
39. 91′We said Sassuolo U20 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–4
40. FTFULL TIME Sassuolo U20 2–2 Torino U20
41. FTSassuolo U20 2–2 Torino U20 · Sassuolo U20 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.