Parma U20 v Bologna U20 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59

Parma U20 5–2 Bologna U20 PARMA U20 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Parma U20 win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.391

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Parma U20 win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Parma U20 was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
1′KICK-OFF Parma U20 v Bologna U20
2′Parma U20 score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–10
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Parma U20 1–0 Bologna U20
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Parma U20 win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
3′We published Parma U20 at 49%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–10
6′Parma U20 find the net on 6′. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
6′We published Parma U20 at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Parma U20 2–0 Bologna U20
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Parma U20 win: 49% at kick-off, 90% now
14′A goal for Parma U20 on 13′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–1
14′We published Parma U20 at 49%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–1
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Parma U20 3–0 Bologna U20
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 98–1–0
32′Parma U20 score on 31′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
32′We published Parma U20 at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Parma U20 4–0 Bologna U20
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Parma U20 win: 49% at kick-off, over 99% now
33′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
36′Parma U20 find the net on 36′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
36′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Parma U20 5–0 Bologna U20
43′A goal for Bologna U20 on 43′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
43′6 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Parma U20 5–1 Bologna U20
45′HALF-TIME Parma U20 5–1 Bologna U20
46′SECOND HALF Parma U20 5–1 Bologna U20
59′Bologna U20 score on 59′ to make it 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Parma U20 5–2 Bologna U20
60′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 5–2 · 100–0–0
63′60′: C. Piro on the scoresheet for Bologna U20, making it 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Parma U20 5–2 Bologna U20
FTParma U20 5–2 Bologna U20 · Parma U20 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Parma U20 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Parma U20 49%, draw 25%, Bologna U20 26%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Parma U20 v Bologna U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Parma U20 win49%

Draw25%

Bologna U20 win26%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Parma U20

Bologna U20

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Parma U20	6	+6	12
4	Bologna U20	6	+3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · parma u20 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Parma U20 a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Parma U20 v Bologna U20~~1.63 – 1.12

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~2 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Parma U20 win

Published at 50%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Parma U20 win	49%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Bologna U20 win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Parma U20 or draw	74%	–	–
Parma U20 clean sheet	33%	–	–
Bologna U20 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.8 6.9 4.0 1 10.2 11.8 6.5 2.4 2 8.5 9.4 5.2 3 4.6 5.1 2.9 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Parma U20 down, Bologna U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,767 Campionato Primavera - 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Parma U20 at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bologna U20 away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Parma U20, 1.12 for Bologna U20. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PAR 0–4 BOL · BOL 1–3 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 1 this season · since 22 Aug

PARMA U20

DWWWDD2–2 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

BOLOGNA U20

WWLLWW4–2 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 3–5 · 2–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internazionale U20	6	+10	14
2	Parma U20	6	+6	12
3	Roma U20	6	+4	12
4	Bologna U20	6	+3	12
5	Empoli U20	6	+3	12
6	Genoa U20	6	+3	10
7	Lazio U20	6	+2	10
8	Cesena U20	6	+1	9
9	Cagliari U20	6	−4	8
10	Lecce U20	6	+1	7
11	Hellas Verona U20	6	−1	7
12	Sassuolo U20	6	−2	7
13	Milan U20	6	−2	7
14	Como U20	6	0	6
15	Atalanta U20	6	−4	6
16	Torino U20	6	−2	5
17	Monza U20	6	−2	5
18	Fiorentina U20	6	−2	4
19	Albinoleffe U20	6	−9	4
20	Juventus U20	6	−5	3