Milan U20 v Cagliari U20 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:44

Milan U20 2–0 Cagliari U20 MILAN U20 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Milan U20 win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.444

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Milan U20 win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Milan U20 was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–28
1′KICK-OFF Milan U20 v Cagliari U20
14′Milan U20 find the net on 14′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
14′We published Milan U20 at 46%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–10
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Milan U20 1–0 Cagliari U20
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Milan U20 win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
15′Milan U20 ahead on 13′ through M. Anastasio. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–8
40′We published Milan U20 at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
45′HALF-TIME Milan U20 1–0 Cagliari U20
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Milan U20 win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
46′SECOND HALF Milan U20 1–0 Cagliari U20
56′A goal for Milan U20 on 56′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
56′We published Milan U20 at 46%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Milan U20 2–0 Cagliari U20
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Milan U20 win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
62′A red card for Cagliari U20 on 62′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 97–3–0
62′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Cagliari U20
82′We published Milan U20 at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Milan U20 2–0 Cagliari U20
FTMilan U20 2–0 Cagliari U20 · Milan U20 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Milan U20 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Milan U20 46%, draw 26%, Cagliari U20 28%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Milan U20 v Cagliari U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Milan U20 win46%

Draw26%

Cagliari U20 win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Milan U20

Cagliari U20

7Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 1

Last match: 12 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Cagliari U20	6	−4	8
13	Milan U20	6	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · milan u20 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Milan U20 a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Milan U20 v Cagliari U20~~1.52 – 1.15

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 1 this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~13 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Milan U20 win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Cagliari U20 win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Milan U20 or draw	72%	–	–
Milan U20 clean sheet	32%	–	–
Cagliari U20 clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.3 7.7 4.6 1 10.3 12.3 6.9 2.6 2 8.0 9.1 5.2 2.0 3 4.1 4.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Milan U20 down, Cagliari U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,768 Campionato Primavera - 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Milan U20 at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cagliari U20 away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Milan U20, 1.15 for Cagliari U20. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MIL 2–1 CAG · CAG 0–2 MIL · MIL 0–3 CAG · CAG 1–1 MIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 1 this season · since 23 Aug

MILAN U20

WDWLLL3–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

CAGLIARI U20

WLWLDD2–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–6 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Parma U20	7	+9	15
2	Internazionale U20	6	+10	14
3	Roma U20	6	+4	12
4	Empoli U20	6	+3	12
5	Bologna U20	7	0	12
6	Genoa U20	6	+3	10
7	Lazio U20	6	+2	10
8	Cesena U20	6	+1	9
9	Cagliari U20	6	−4	8
10	Lecce U20	6	+1	7
11	Hellas Verona U20	6	−1	7
12	Sassuolo U20	6	−2	7
13	Milan U20	6	−2	7
14	Como U20	6	0	6
15	Atalanta U20	6	−4	6
16	Torino U20	6	−2	5
17	Monza U20	6	−2	5
18	Fiorentina U20	6	−2	4
19	Albinoleffe U20	6	−9	4
20	Juventus U20	6	−5	3