Lecce U20 v Cesena U20 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Lecce U20 1–0 Cesena U20 LECCE U20 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lecce U20 win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.531

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lecce U20 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lecce U20 41%, draw 24%, Cesena U20 35%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Lecce U20 v Cesena U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lecce U20 win41%

Draw24%

Cesena U20 win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lecce U20

Cesena U20

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Cesena U20	6	+1	9
10	Lecce U20	6	+1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lecce u20 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Lecce U20 a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lecce U20 v Cesena U20~~1.63 – 1.50

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~10 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lecce U20 win

Published at 40%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lecce U20 win	41%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Cesena U20 win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Lecce U20 or draw	65%	–	–
Lecce U20 clean sheet	23%	–	–
Cesena U20 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 4.7 6.3 4.9 2.5 1 6.9 10.9 7.9 4.0 2 5.8 8.6 6.4 3.2 3 3.2 4.7 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lecce U20 down, Cesena U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,768 Campionato Primavera - 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lecce U20 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cesena U20 away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Lecce U20, 1.50 for Cesena U20. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LEC 0–0 CES · CES 3–1 LEC · LEC 3–2 CES · CES 3–1 LEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 1 this season · since 22 Aug

LECCE U20

LDDDDW1–2 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

CESENA U20

WDDLDW1–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Parma U20	7	+9	15
2	Internazionale U20	6	+10	14
3	Roma U20	6	+4	12
4	Empoli U20	6	+3	12
5	Bologna U20	7	0	12
6	Genoa U20	6	+3	10
7	Lazio U20	6	+2	10
8	Cesena U20	6	+1	9
9	Cagliari U20	6	−4	8
10	Lecce U20	6	+1	7
11	Hellas Verona U20	6	−1	7
12	Sassuolo U20	6	−2	7
13	Milan U20	6	−2	7
14	Como U20	6	0	6
15	Atalanta U20	6	−4	6
16	Torino U20	6	−2	5
17	Monza U20	6	−2	5
18	Fiorentina U20	6	−2	4
19	Albinoleffe U20	6	−9	4
20	Juventus U20	6	−5	3