Genoa U20 v Sassuolo U20 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Genoa U20 1–1 Sassuolo U20 GENOA U20 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Genoa U20 win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.862

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Genoa U20 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Genoa U20 43%, draw 24%, Sassuolo U20 33%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Genoa U20 v Sassuolo U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Genoa U20 win43%

Draw24%

Sassuolo U20 win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Genoa U20

Sassuolo U20

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 1

Last match: 12 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Genoa U20	6	+3	10
15	Sassuolo U20	6	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · genoa u20 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Genoa U20 a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Genoa U20 v Sassuolo U20~~1.62 – 1.38

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 7~~7 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Genoa U20 win	43%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Sassuolo U20 win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Genoa U20 or draw	67%	–	–
Genoa U20 clean sheet	25%	–	–
Sassuolo U20 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.3 6.7 4.8 2.2 1 7.9 11.3 7.6 3.5 2 6.5 8.9 6.1 2.8 3 3.5 4.8 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Genoa U20 down, Sassuolo U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,773 Campionato Primavera - 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Genoa U20 at home: 2.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sassuolo U20 away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Genoa U20, 1.38 for Sassuolo U20. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAS 1–1 GEN · GEN 1–4 SAS · SAS 1–0 GEN · GEN 2–3 SAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 1 this season · since 22 Aug

GENOA U20

LWDLWW0–1 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–1

SASSUOLO U20

DLLWLW1–1 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 5–3 · 1–2 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internazionale U20	7	+10	15
2	Parma U20	7	+9	15
3	Roma U20	7	+3	12
4	Empoli U20	6	+3	12
5	Bologna U20	7	0	12
6	Lazio U20	7	+2	11
7	Genoa U20	6	+3	10
8	Lecce U20	7	+2	10
9	Milan U20	7	0	10
10	Cesena U20	7	0	9
11	Torino U20	7	−1	8
12	Cagliari U20	7	−6	8
13	Fiorentina U20	7	0	7
14	Hellas Verona U20	6	−1	7
15	Sassuolo U20	6	−2	7
16	Como U20	6	0	6
17	Atalanta U20	6	−4	6
18	Monza U20	6	−2	5
19	Albinoleffe U20	7	−11	4
20	Juventus U20	6	−5	3