Empoli U20 v Atalanta U20 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Empoli U20 2–1 Atalanta U20 EMPOLI U20 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Empoli U20 win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.565

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Empoli U20 win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Empoli U20 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–35
1′KICK-OFF Empoli U20 v Atalanta U20
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Empoli U20 win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Empoli U20 0–0 Atalanta U20
46′SECOND HALF Empoli U20 0–0 Atalanta U20
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Empoli U20 win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
47′Empoli U20 find the net on 47′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–21–8
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Empoli U20 1–0 Atalanta U20
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Empoli U20 win: 39% at kick-off, 72% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Empoli U20 win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
48′We said Empoli U20 at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–21–7
57′We said Empoli U20 at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
63′A goal for Empoli U20 on 62′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
63′We said Empoli U20 at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
63′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 96–4–1
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Empoli U20 2–0 Atalanta U20
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Empoli U20 win: 39% at kick-off, 96% now
72′Atalanta U20 score on 72′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 82–16–2
72′We said Empoli U20 at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–1 · 82–16–2
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Empoli U20 2–1 Atalanta U20
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Empoli U20 win: 39% at kick-off, 82% now
73′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 83–15–2
76′We said Empoli U20 at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Empoli U20 win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
82′We said Empoli U20 at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
FTFULL TIME Empoli U20 2–1 Atalanta U20
FTEmpoli U20 2–1 Atalanta U20 · Empoli U20 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Empoli U20 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Empoli U20 39%, draw 26%, Atalanta U20 35%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Empoli U20 v Atalanta U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Empoli U20 win39%

Draw26%

Atalanta U20 win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Empoli U20

Atalanta U20

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato Primavera - 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Empoli U20	6	+3	12
17	Atalanta U20	6	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · empoli u20 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Empoli U20 a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Empoli U20 v Atalanta U20~~1.38 – 1.29

~~Form · Campionato Primavera - 1 this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 6~~4 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Empoli U20 win	39%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Atalanta U20 win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Empoli U20 or draw	65%	–	–
Empoli U20 clean sheet	28%	–	–
Atalanta U20 clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.3 8.7 5.8 2.5 1 9.3 12.4 7.9 3.4 2 6.6 8.4 5.4 2.3 3 3.0 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Empoli U20 down, Atalanta U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,773 Campionato Primavera - 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato Primavera - 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Empoli U20 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atalanta U20 away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Empoli U20, 1.29 for Atalanta U20. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~EMP 0–1 ATA · ATA 2–0 EMP · ATA 3–0 EMP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato Primavera - 1 this season · since 23 Aug

EMPOLI U20

WDDWWD1–0 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

ATALANTA U20

LLWLLW2–4 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internazionale U20	7	+10	15
2	Parma U20	7	+9	15
3	Roma U20	7	+3	12
4	Empoli U20	6	+3	12
5	Bologna U20	7	0	12
6	Lazio U20	7	+2	11
7	Genoa U20	6	+3	10
8	Lecce U20	7	+2	10
9	Milan U20	7	0	10
10	Cesena U20	7	0	9
11	Torino U20	7	−1	8
12	Cagliari U20	7	−6	8
13	Fiorentina U20	7	0	7
14	Hellas Verona U20	6	−1	7
15	Sassuolo U20	6	−2	7
16	Como U20	6	0	6
17	Atalanta U20	6	−4	6
18	Monza U20	6	−2	5
19	Albinoleffe U20	7	−11	4
20	Juventus U20	6	−5	3