Cagliari U20 v Monza U20 prediction · Campionato Primavera

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 16:32

Cagliari U20 1–1 Monza U20 CAGLIARI U20 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Cagliari U20 win~~45%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.844

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.787

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cagliari U20 win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cagliari U20 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
1′KICK-OFF Cagliari U20 v Monza U20
2′⚽ GOAL · 3' Cagliari U20 0–0 Monza U20
3′3′ and it is 0–0: Monza U20 have scored. 0–0 · 45–26–30
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Monza U20
45′HALF-TIME Cagliari U20 0–0 Monza U20
45′SECOND HALF Cagliari U20 0–0 Monza U20
47′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Monza U20
66′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Monza U20 · On: C. Fogliaro · Off: K. Varesis Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Monza U20 · On: A. Abou Elezz · Off: R. Zanni Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Monza U20 · On: E. Scaramelli · Off: A. Diene
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cagliari U20 · On: A. Bahlaouan · Off: G. Lo Verde
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cagliari U20 · On: L. Costa · Off: G. A. Cardu
78′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Cagliari U20
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Cagliari U20 0–1 Monza U20
81′⚽ GOAL · 82' Cagliari U20 0–1 Monza U20
92′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Cagliari U20 · On: L. Tronci · Off: A. Doppio
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Cagliari U20 · On: M. Barry · Off: K. Goryanov
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Monza U20
94′⚽ GOAL · 95' Cagliari U20 0–1 Monza U20
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Cagliari U20 1–1 Monza U20 · A. Abou Elezz
FTFULL TIME Cagliari U20 1–1 Monza U20
FTCagliari U20 1–1 Monza U20 · Cagliari U20 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 14:01 · locked at kick-off

Cagliari U20 win45%

Draw26%

Monza U20 win30%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 14:00

Line-ups

Cagliari U20

Monza U20

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cagliari U20

Monza U20

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Cagliari U20	5	−4	7
16	Monza U20	5	−2	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cagliari U20

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Kehayov

3 G. Lo Verde

75 E. Mawassa Nkazi

33 M. Nuvoli

73 A. Doppio

20 N. Grandu

7 G. A. Cardu

30 D. Akarakiri

27 S. Piro

19 K. Goryanov

35 A. Sugamele

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · V. Sarno

2 · A. Bahlaouan

5 · L. Tronci

8 · G. Piredda

9 · L. Costa

15 · M. Barry

21 · W. Mehlstrand Skjold

28 · P. Battaglini

4 · A. Romano

44 · M. Sow

78 · N. Hamdaoua

Monza U20

Formation not confirmed

43 A. Strajnar

4 M. Villa

21 R. Zanni

11 M. Attinasi

46 C. Mariani

13 G. Martone

27 T. Cassina

3 K. Varesis

14 M. Drobnic

9 A. Diene

8 P. Rota Bulo

Coach · –

Substitutes

50 · A. Ballabio

2 · D. Scifo

77 · D. Ganci

90 · C. Fogliaro

17 · G. Fardin

7 · E. Scaramelli

23 · G. Perego

26 · A. Gamba

16 · A. Abou Elezz

5 · F. Badarau

34 · G. Carobbio

Our number · cagliari u20 winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 14:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market40%

Us45%

~~Market~~40%

We make Cagliari U20 a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cagliari u20 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cagliari U20 win	45%	40%	+5
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Monza U20 win	30%	33%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	52%	50%	+2
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	29%	+1
Cagliari U20 or draw	70%	67%	+3
Cagliari U20 clean sheet	30%	–	–
Monza U20 clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.7 7.5 4.6 1 9.6 12.0 7.1 2.9 2 7.6 9.1 5.5 2.2 3 3.9 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cagliari U20 down, Monza U20 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,765 Campionato Primavera - 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campionato Primavera - 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cagliari U20 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Monza U20 away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Cagliari U20, 1.21 for Monza U20. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CAG 2–0 MON · MON 2–0 CAG · MON 2–1 CAG · CAG 3–2 MON

Form · last six in Campionato Primavera - 1

CAGLIARI U20

WWLWLD3–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–6 · 2–2

MONZA U20

DLLWDL0–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internazionale U20	6	+10	14
2	Parma U20	6	+6	12
3	Roma U20	6	+4	12
4	Bologna U20	6	+3	12
5	Empoli U20	6	+3	12
6	Genoa U20	6	+3	10
7	Lazio U20	6	+2	10
8	Cesena U20	6	+1	9
9	Lecce U20	6	+1	7
10	Hellas Verona U20	6	−1	7
11	Milan U20	6	−2	7
12	Cagliari U20	5	−4	7
13	Como U20	6	0	6
14	Atalanta U20	6	−4	6
15	Torino U20	6	−2	5
16	Monza U20	5	−2	4
17	Fiorentina U20	6	−2	4
18	Sassuolo U20	5	−4	4
19	Albinoleffe U20	5	−7	4
20	Juventus U20	6	−5	3