Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel Aviv prediction · Toto Cup Ligat Al

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Maccabi Tel AvivDrawHapoel Tel Aviv

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Maccabi Tel Aviv 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maccabi Tel Aviv are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Tel Aviv 54%, draw 24%, Hapoel Tel Aviv 22%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel AvivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi Tel Aviv win54%

Draw24%

Hapoel Tel Aviv win22%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 18:30

RoundFinal

VenueBloomfield Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Hapoel Tel Aviv

5Days since last match5

Last match: 24 Oct · Ligat Ha'al

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi tel aviv winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Maccabi Tel Aviv a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel Aviv~~1.89 – 1.14

~~Form · Toto Cup Ligat Al this season · since 18 July~~W1 D0 L0 · W1 D1 L0

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maccabi Tel Aviv win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Tel Aviv win	54%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Hapoel Tel Aviv win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw	78%	–	–
Maccabi Tel Aviv clean sheet	32%	–	–
Hapoel Tel Aviv clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.8 4.8 3.2 1 8.4 11.1 5.9 2.3 2 8.6 9.6 5.5 2.1 3 5.4 6.0 3.4 4 2.6 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Tel Aviv down, Hapoel Tel Aviv across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,253 Ligat Ha'al matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligat Ha'al matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi Tel Aviv at home: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Tel Aviv away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 1.14 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAC 4–1 HAP · HAP 1–1 MAC · MAC 1–0 HAP · MAC 1–2 HAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Toto Cup Ligat Al this season · since 18 July

MACCABI TEL AVIV

W1–0

HAPOEL TEL AVIV

DW2–2 · 2–1

Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel Aviv

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Hapoel Tel Aviv

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Toto Cup Ligat Al this season · since 18 July