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Model 1.2

Home › Football › State Cup › Hapoel Sderot v Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

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Hapoel Sderot v Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

Hapoel Sderot
15:30Upcoming
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

State Cup · MON 26 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Hapoel SderotDrawMaccabi Ahi Nazareth
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30
Before kick-off · Match result · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Sderot 34%, draw 25%, Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 41%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Sderot v Maccabi Ahi NazarethBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Sderot win34%
Draw25%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win41%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 15:30

RoundRound of 64

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Sderot

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

3Days since last match3

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga Leumit

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi ahi nazareth winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off
41% The market–
Us41%

We make Maccabi Ahi Nazareth a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hapoel Sderot v Maccabi Ahi Nazareth1.47 – 1.66

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 20 OCT 00:0125 OCT 07:17
Our probability · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win

Published at 46%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hapoel Sderot win34%––
Draw25%––
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win41%––
Over 2.5 goals59%––
Both teams to score61%––
Over 1.5 goals81%––
Over 3.5 goals38%––
Hapoel Sderot or draw59%––
Hapoel Sderot clean sheet21%––
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%
0123450 6.0 6.6 6.0 3.3 1 5.9 11.2 8.2 4.5 2.0 2 5.0 7.5 5.9 3.2 3 2.5 3.8 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Sderot down, Maccabi Ahi Nazareth across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · State Cup this season · since 12 Oct

HAPOEL SDEROT

W4–1

MACCABI AHI NAZARETH

No matches in our record yet.