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Model 1.2

Home › Football › State Cup › Hapoel Nazareth Illit v Maccabi Yavne

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Hapoel Nazareth Illit v Maccabi Yavne

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
16:00Upcoming
Maccabi Yavne

State Cup · MON 26 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Hapoel Nazareth IllitDrawMaccabi Yavne
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Hapoel Nazareth Illit 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hapoel Nazareth Illit are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Nazareth Illit 45%, draw 26%, Maccabi Yavne 30%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Nazareth Illit v Maccabi YavneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Nazareth Illit win45%
Draw26%
Maccabi Yavne win30%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 16:00

RoundRound of 64

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Maccabi Yavne

3Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Alef

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel nazareth illit winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off
45% The market–
Us45%

We make Hapoel Nazareth Illit a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hapoel Nazareth Illit v Maccabi Yavne1.58 – 1.25
Form · State Cup this season · since 12 OctW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 20 OCT 00:0124 OCT 23:51
Our probability · Hapoel Nazareth Illit win

Published at 44%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hapoel Nazareth Illit win45%––
Draw26%––
Maccabi Yavne win30%––
Over 2.5 goals54%––
Both teams to score57%––
Over 1.5 goals78%––
Over 3.5 goals32%––
Hapoel Nazareth Illit or draw70%––
Hapoel Nazareth Illit clean sheet29%––
Maccabi Yavne clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%
0123450 6.3 7.0 4.6 1 8.9 12.0 7.3 3.0 2 7.4 9.2 5.8 2.4 3 3.9 4.9 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Nazareth Illit down, Maccabi Yavne across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · State Cup this season · since 12 Oct

HAPOEL NAZARETH ILLIT

W4–0

MACCABI YAVNE

W1–0