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Model 1.1

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Hapoel Nazareth Illit v Hapoel Bnei Musmus

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
4–0Full time
Hapoel Bnei Musmus

State Cup · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 4–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus HAPOEL NAZARETH ILLIT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hapoel Nazareth Illit win59%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.257
The market’s Brier score0.295

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Nazareth Illit win at 59%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Nazareth Illit 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Nazareth Illit v Hapoel Bnei Musmus
  4. 7′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Nazareth Illit 59% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–24–18
  5. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Hapoel Nazareth Illit
  6. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
  7. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 51% now
  8. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
  9. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 51% now
  10. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 51% now
  11. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
  12. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 48% now
  13. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 51% now
  14. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 48% now
  15. 40′We said Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–35–17
  16. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 51% now
  17. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 48% now
  18. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 47% now
  19. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 47% now
  20. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 51% now
  21. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 47% now
  22. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: 59% at kick-off, 51% now
  23. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
  24. 45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
  25. 46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
  26. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
  27. 75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
  28. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
  29. 77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
  30. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Hapoel Nazareth Illit 4–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
  31. 80′⚽ GOAL · 78' Hapoel Nazareth Illit 4–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
  32. FTFULL TIME Hapoel Nazareth Illit 4–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
  33. FTHapoel Nazareth Illit 4–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus · Hapoel Nazareth Illit win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Nazareth Illit win59%
Draw24%
Hapoel Bnei Musmus win18%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

349Days since last match700
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel nazareth illit winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off
59% The market56%
Us59%
Market56%

We make Hapoel Nazareth Illit a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:2112 OCT 15:14
Our probability · hapoel nazareth illit win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hapoel Nazareth Illit win59%56%+3
Draw24%25%−1
Hapoel Bnei Musmus win18%20%−2
Over 2.5 goals49%51%−2
Both teams to score48%51%−3
Over 1.5 goals74%74%+1
Over 3.5 goals27%31%−4
Hapoel Nazareth Illit or draw82%80%+2
Hapoel Nazareth Illit clean sheet42%––
Hapoel Bnei Musmus clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%
0123450 7.5 5.8 2.6 1 12.3 11.3 4.7 2 11.3 9.7 4.2 3 6.7 5.8 2.5 4 3.0 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Nazareth Illit down, Hapoel Bnei Musmus across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2020

No meetings between these two in State Cup since 2020. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in State Cup

HAPOEL NAZARETH ILLIT

WWWLLL4–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–1

HAPOEL BNEI MUSMUS

WLWDWL1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

No league table for this competition.