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Model 1.1

Home › Football › State Cup › Hapoel Herzliya v Hapoel Azor

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Hapoel Herzliya v Hapoel Azor

Hapoel Herzliya
0–1Full time
Hapoel Azor

State Cup · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31
Hapoel Herzliya 0–1 Hapoel Azor HAPOEL HERZLIYA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hapoel Herzliya win42%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.833
The market’s Brier score0.851

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Herzliya win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Herzliya 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Herzliya v Hapoel Azor
  4. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Hapoel Azor
  5. 15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Hapoel Azor
  6. 17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Hapoel Herzliya 0–0 Hapoel Azor
  7. 18′Hapoel Herzliya find the net on 18′. 0–0. 0–0 · 40–35–26
  8. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Hapoel Azor
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Hapoel Herzliya 0–0 Hapoel Azor
  10. 90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Hapoel Azor
  11. 90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Hapoel Herzliya 0–1 Hapoel Azor
  12. 93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Hapoel Herzliya 0–1 Hapoel Azor
  13. FTFULL TIME Hapoel Herzliya 0–1 Hapoel Azor
  14. FTHapoel Herzliya 0–1 Hapoel Azor · Hapoel Herzliya win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Herzliya win42%
Draw33%
Hapoel Azor win26%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hapoel Herzliya

Hapoel Azor

773Days since last match695
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel herzliya winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off
42% The market48%
Us42%
Market48%

We make Hapoel Herzliya a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 9 OCT 06:2112 OCT 16:14
Our probability · hapoel herzliya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hapoel Herzliya win42%48%−6
Draw33%27%+6
Hapoel Azor win26%26%0
Over 2.5 goals33%50%−16
Both teams to score40%53%−13
Over 1.5 goals61%71%−11
Over 3.5 goals16%29%−13
Hapoel Herzliya or draw74%74%0
Hapoel Herzliya clean sheet43%––
Hapoel Azor clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.3%
0123450 15.3 10.1 4.8 1 14.1 13.6 5.4 2 8.8 7.3 3.2 3 3.6 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Herzliya down, Hapoel Azor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting2.25
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsHAP 0–0 HAP · HAP 2–1 HAP · HAP 2–1 HAP · HAP 1–2 HAP

Form · last six in State Cup

HAPOEL HERZLIYA

WWDWDD2–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

HAPOEL AZOR

LWLWDD0–3 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

No league table for this competition.