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Model 1.1

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Dimona v Bnei Yehuda

Dimona
2–0Full time
Bnei Yehuda

State Cup · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:49
Dimona 2–0 Bnei Yehuda BNEI YEHUDA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bnei Yehuda win50%
The market said10%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.874
The market’s Brier score0.128

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bnei Yehuda win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Bnei Yehuda was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 25–25–50
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dimona v Bnei Yehuda
  4. 3′Much as we predicted: Bnei Yehuda was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 25–25–50
  5. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Dimona
  6. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Bnei Yehuda
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Dimona 0–0 Bnei Yehuda
  8. 45′SECOND HALF Dimona 0–0 Bnei Yehuda
  9. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Dimona 1–0 Bnei Yehuda
  10. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Dimona 2–0 Bnei Yehuda
  11. FTFULL TIME Dimona 2–0 Bnei Yehuda
  12. FTDimona 2–0 Bnei Yehuda · Bnei Yehuda win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Dimona win25%
Draw25%
Bnei Yehuda win50%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dimona

Bnei Yehuda

290Days since last match186
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bnei yehuda winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off
50% The market10%
Us50%
Market10%

We make Bnei Yehuda a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 10%. We are 40 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published
0%10%20%30%40%50%60% 9 OCT 06:2112 OCT 13:14
Our probability · bnei yehuda win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 11% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dimona win25%71%−46
Draw25%19%+7
Bnei Yehuda win50%10%+40
Over 2.5 goals51%67%−16
Both teams to score54%56%−2
Over 1.5 goals76%86%−10
Over 3.5 goals29%49%−20
Dimona or draw50%90%−40
Dimona clean sheet19%––
Bnei Yehuda clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%
0123450 6.9 10.3 8.7 4.8 1 6.8 12.1 9.6 5.2 2.1 2 3.9 6.4 5.2 2.8 3 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dimona down, Bnei Yehuda across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2020

No meeting of these two in State Cup since 2020 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in State Cup

DIMONA

LWLWWL0–4 · 7–0 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–3

BNEI YEHUDA

LDWDWD0–4 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

No league table for this competition.