Maccabi Petah Tikva v Maccabi Haifa prediction · Ligat Ha'al

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–2 Maccabi Haifa MACCABI HAIFA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Maccabi Haifa win~~62%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.223

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.176

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi Haifa win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Maccabi Haifa 62% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 18–21–61
1′KICK-OFF Maccabi Petah Tikva v Maccabi Haifa
14′Maccabi Petah Tikva find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 41–23–35
14′We said Maccabi Haifa at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–0 · 41–23–35
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–0 Maccabi Haifa
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Maccabi Haifa win: 62% at kick-off, 35% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Maccabi Petah Tikva win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Maccabi Haifa win 35%)
17′We said Maccabi Haifa at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 42–24–34
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Maccabi Haifa win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
29′We said Maccabi Haifa at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 45–26–29
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 45–26–29
40′We said Maccabi Haifa at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 49–27–24
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Maccabi Haifa win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
45′HALF-TIME Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–0 Maccabi Haifa
46′SECOND HALF Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–0 Maccabi Haifa
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Ido Cohen · Maccabi Petah Tikva
49′We said Maccabi Haifa at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 53–28–19
58′We said Maccabi Haifa at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 58–28–14
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Maccabi Haifa win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–1 Maccabi Haifa
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Maccabi Haifa win: 62% at kick-off, 39% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Maccabi Petah Tikva win 17%)
63′Ethane Azoulay scores for Maccabi Haifa on 62′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 16–45–39
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Maccabi Haifa · On: Eli Dasa · Off: Jelle Bataille
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Maccabi Haifa · On: Adam Grimberg · Off: Ali Mohamed
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Maccabi Haifa · On: Yarin Levi · Off: Kenny Saief
67′We said Maccabi Haifa at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–2 Maccabi Haifa
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Maccabi Haifa win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Maccabi Haifa win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
68′66′: Noam Sztejfman on the scoresheet for Maccabi Haifa, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–13–85
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Maccabi Petah Tikva · On: Or dadia · Off: Eloge Yao
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Ethane Azoulay · Maccabi Haifa
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Maccabi Haifa · On: Iyad khalaili · Off: Kenji Gorre
78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Pedro Brazão · Maccabi Haifa
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Maccabi Haifa · On: Tsunami · Off: Bruninho
79′We said Maccabi Haifa at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Maccabi Petah Tikva · On: Lior Kasa · Off: Eitan Tibi
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Maccabi Petah Tikva · On: Itay Baruch · Off: Aviv Salem
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Maccabi Petah Tikva · On: K. Spence · Off: José Cortés
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Maccabi Haifa win: 62% at kick-off, 92% now
86′We said Maccabi Haifa at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Maccabi Petah Tikva · On: Marko Rakonjac · Off: E. Inbrum
FTFULL TIME Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–2 Maccabi Haifa
FTMaccabi Petah Tikva 1–2 Maccabi Haifa · Maccabi Haifa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maccabi Haifa are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Petah Tikva 18%, draw 21%, Maccabi Haifa 62%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Petah Tikva v Maccabi HaifaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi Petah Tikva win18%

Draw21%

Maccabi Haifa win62%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueHaMoshava Stadium

Line-ups

Maccabi Petah Tikva

5-4-1

Maccabi Haifa

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Petah Tikva

Maccabi Haifa

7Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligat Ha'al

Last match: 12 Oct · Ligat Ha'al

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Maccabi Haifa	6	+8	15
9	Maccabi Petah Tikva	6	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Maccabi Petah Tikva

5-4-1

39 M. Erlich

26 G. Deznet

6 E. Yao

18 E. Tibi

22 Bashar Abdach

17 A. Salem

9 S. Owusu

20 I. Cohen

99 Eyal Inbrum

77 J. Cortés

53 L. Hazan

Coach · Z. Arie

Substitutes

12 · I. Baruch

24 · L. Kasa

27 · Y. Koren

44 · P. Korrea

80 · Y. Oz

97 · M. Rakonjac

7 · K. Spence

1 · D. Hevron

30 · O. Dadya

Maccabi Haifa

4-2-3-1

55 O. Glazer

25 J. Bataille

35 N. Sztejfman

21 N. Lonwijk

16 K. Saief

4 A. Muhammad

19 E. Azoulay

30 Pedro Brazão

10 Bruninho

11 K. Gorré

9 A. Novaković

Coach · B. Bakhar

Substitutes

38 · Adam Grimberg

29 · Iyad Khalaili

8 · Y. Levi

7 · Y. Mordechai

1 · yaacov omer on nir

36 · N. Ratner

66 · Tsunami

2 · E. Dasa

44 · Pedrão

Our number · maccabi haifa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:39 · locked at kick-off

62% The market66%

Us62%

~~Market~~66%

We make Maccabi Haifa a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi Petah Tikva v Maccabi Haifa~~1.16 – 2.28

~~Form · Ligat Ha'al this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 15~~9 v 2

~~The market · Maccabi Haifa win~~66% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maccabi Haifa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Petah Tikva win	18%	15%	+3
Draw	21%	19%	+2
Maccabi Haifa win	62%	66%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	66%	69%	−3
Both teams to score	61%	62%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	86%	0
Over 3.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw	38%	34%	+4
Maccabi Petah Tikva clean sheet	11%	–	–
Maccabi Haifa clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.4%

0123450 4.1 6.8 8.3 6.3 3.6 1 3.2 9.2 9.4 7.1 4.1 2 2.3 4.9 5.4 4.1 2.3 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Petah Tikva down, Maccabi Haifa across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,241 Ligat Ha'al matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligat Ha'al matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.14 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi Petah Tikva at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi Haifa away: 2.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Maccabi Petah Tikva, 2.28 for Maccabi Haifa. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.14

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~HAI 1–0 PET · PET 1–2 HAI · HAI 5–0 PET · PET 3–2 HAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligat Ha'al this season · since 22 Aug

MACCABI PETAH TIKVA

WWLLLL2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 1–2

MACCABI HAIFA

WLWWWW2–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	6	+12	16
2	Maccabi Haifa	6	+8	15
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	6	+9	13
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	+3	13
5	Beitar Jerusalem	6	+2	12
6	Hapoel Haifa	6	+2	9
7	Hapoel Katamon	6	−3	7
8	Maccabi Netanya	6	0	6
9	Maccabi Petah Tikva	6	−4	6
10	Bnei Sakhnin	6	−3	5
11	Hapoel Petah Tikva	6	−6	4
12	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	6	−8	3
13	Hapoel Ramat Gan	6	−9	3
14	Ironi Tiberias	6	−3	1