Maccabi Petah Tikva v Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction · Ligat Ha'al

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Maccabi Petah TikvaDrawHapoel Beer Sheva

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Hapoel Beer Sheva 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hapoel Beer Sheva are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Petah Tikva 15%, draw 20%, Hapoel Beer Sheva 65%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Petah Tikva v Hapoel Beer ShevaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi Petah Tikva win15%

Draw20%

Hapoel Beer Sheva win65%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueHaMoshava Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Petah Tikva

Hapoel Beer Sheva

7Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · Ligat Ha'al

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	7	+4	16
8	Maccabi Petah Tikva	8	−4	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel beer sheva winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Hapoel Beer Sheva a 65% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–2.2, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi Petah Tikva v Hapoel Beer Sheva~~0.96 – 2.22

~~Form · last six in Ligat Ha'al this season · since 2 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 16~~8 v 4

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Petah Tikva win	15%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Hapoel Beer Sheva win	65%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw	35%	–	–
Maccabi Petah Tikva clean sheet	11%	–	–
Hapoel Beer Sheva clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.1%

0123450 5.1 8.7 10.1 7.5 4.2 1 3.5 9.5 9.5 7.0 3.9 2 2.0 4.3 4.6 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Petah Tikva down, Hapoel Beer Sheva across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,253 Ligat Ha'al matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligat Ha'al matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.22 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi Petah Tikva at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Beer Sheva away: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Maccabi Petah Tikva, 2.22 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~HAP 1–0 MAC · MAC 2–5 HAP · MAC 1–0 HAP · HAP 1–1 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligat Ha'al this season · since 2 Sept

MACCABI PETAH TIKVA

LLLLLW1–2 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

HAPOEL BEER SHEVA

DLWWWW2–2 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	8	+16	20
2	Hapoel Tel Aviv	8	+13	19
3	Maccabi Haifa	7	+9	18
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	7	+4	16
5	Beitar Jerusalem	7	+2	13
6	Bnei Sakhnin	8	0	11
7	Maccabi Netanya	8	+1	10
8	Maccabi Petah Tikva	8	−4	9
9	Hapoel Haifa	8	−4	9
10	Hapoel Katamon	8	−7	7
11	Hapoel Ramat Gan	8	−8	6
12	Hapoel Petah Tikva	7	−8	4
13	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	8	−10	3
14	Ironi Tiberias	8	−4	2