Maccabi Netanya v Ironi Kiryat Shmona prediction · Ligat Ha'al

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Maccabi Netanya 1–0 Ironi Kiryat Shmona MACCABI NETANYA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi Netanya win~~47%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.421

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.329

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi Netanya win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Maccabi Netanya was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
1′KICK-OFF Maccabi Netanya v Ironi Kiryat Shmona
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Aziz Ouattara Mohammed · Maccabi Netanya
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Talles Costa · Ironi Kiryat Shmona
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Basam Zaarura · Maccabi Netanya
45′HALF-TIME Maccabi Netanya 0–0 Ironi Kiryat Shmona
46′SECOND HALF Maccabi Netanya 0–0 Ironi Kiryat Shmona
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Maccabi Netanya win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
54′We said Maccabi Netanya at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–40–25
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Maccabi Netanya win 35%)
55′We expected about 3.3 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–40–25
57′We said Maccabi Netanya at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–42–24
62′11 shots for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 32–46–22
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Maccabi Netanya · On: Yarin Abuhatzera · Off: Isaac Rodrigues de Lima
66′We said Maccabi Netanya at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
66′Ironi Kiryat Shmona have had 12 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 29–50–21
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ironi Kiryat Shmona · On: Niv Michael Gabay · Off: Alexandru Pop
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ironi Kiryat Shmona · On: Ariel Sheratzky · Off: Rufat Abdullazada
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Maccabi Netanya · On: Dor Hugy · Off: Aziz Ouattara Mohammed
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Maccabi Netanya · On: Eylon Almog · Off: Oz Bilu
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Maccabi Netanya · On: Nadav Niddam · Off: Basam Zaarura
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Maccabi Netanya win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ironi Kiryat Shmona · On: Mor Simantov · Off: Bilal Shaheen
73′We said Maccabi Netanya at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
74′PENALTY · 73' Maccabi Netanya
75′We published Maccabi Netanya at 47%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Maccabi Netanya 1–0 Ironi Kiryat Shmona
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Maccabi Netanya win: 47% at kick-off, 84% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Maccabi Netanya win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
76′We published Maccabi Netanya at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′Davó scores for Maccabi Netanya on 74′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–13–1
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Ariel Sheratzky · Ironi Kiryat Shmona
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Maccabi Netanya win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Ironi Kiryat Shmona · On: Nadav Markovitch · Off: Talles Costa
82′We published Maccabi Netanya at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
86′Ironi Kiryat Shmona have had 16 attempts to 10 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 93–7–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Maccabi Netanya · On: Karm Jaber · Off: Valentin Simion
89′We published Maccabi Netanya at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Maccabi Netanya win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Shai Barda · Ironi Kiryat Shmona
FTFULL TIME Maccabi Netanya 1–0 Ironi Kiryat Shmona
FTMaccabi Netanya 1–0 Ironi Kiryat Shmona · Maccabi Netanya win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maccabi Netanya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Netanya 47%, draw 24%, Ironi Kiryat Shmona 29%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Netanya v Ironi Kiryat ShmonaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi Netanya win47%

Draw24%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:15

RoundMatchday 7

VenueMiriam Stadium

Line-ups

Maccabi Netanya

4-2-3-1

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Netanya

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligat Ha'al

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Maccabi Netanya	6	0	6
12	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	6	−8	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Maccabi Netanya

4-2-3-1

22 Samu

12 A. Azugi

23 O. Verdon

6 B. Konaté

2 G. Morozov

32 A. Ouattara

98 G. Simion

10 O. Bilu

16 B. Zaarura

7 Isaac

83 Matheus Davó

Coach · R. Levy

Substitutes

9 · E. Almog

1 · N. Antman

17 · Y. Abuhazira

24 · A. Cohen

44 · Benny Feldman

11 · D. Hugi

26 · K. Jaber

13 · N. Niddam

21 · A. Talpa

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

4-2-3-1

19 Daniel

28 I. Vaier

26 N. Ljubisavljević

32 S. Ben-David

11 S. Sabah

8 Talles Costa

63 Alexandre Sola

7 A. Sagna

21 R. Abdullazadə

91 B. Shaheen

9 A. Pop

Coach · S. Barda

Substitutes

1 · Nikola Djurkovic

12 · J. Al Halabi

6 · O. Benbenishti

20 · O. Darwish

44 · S. Edri

39 · N. Gabay

24 · N. Markovitch

10 · A. Shirdatzki

16 · M. Simantov

Our number · maccabi netanya winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market53%

Us47%

~~Market~~53%

We make Maccabi Netanya a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi Netanya v Ironi Kiryat Shmona~~1.87 – 1.43

~~Form · Ligat Ha'al this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~8 v 12

~~The market · Maccabi Netanya win~~53% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maccabi Netanya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Netanya win	47%	53%	−6
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Ironi Kiryat Shmona win	29%	22%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	64%	56%	+8
Both teams to score	64%	57%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	84%	78%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	42%	35%	+7
Maccabi Netanya or draw	71%	78%	−7
Maccabi Netanya clean sheet	24%	–	–
Ironi Kiryat Shmona clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.7 4.6 3.8 1 6.2 10.6 7.0 3.3 2 6.5 9.0 6.4 3.1 3 4.0 5.6 4.0 4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Netanya down, Ironi Kiryat Shmona across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,241 Ligat Ha'al matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligat Ha'al matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi Netanya at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ironi Kiryat Shmona away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Maccabi Netanya, 1.43 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~IRO 1–0 MAC · MAC 1–1 IRO · IRO 1–2 MAC · MAC 1–0 IRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligat Ha'al this season · since 22 Aug

MACCABI NETANYA

DWDLLD0–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

IRONI KIRYAT SHMONA

LWLLLL1–2 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	6	+12	16
2	Maccabi Haifa	6	+8	15
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	6	+9	13
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	+3	13
5	Beitar Jerusalem	6	+2	12
6	Hapoel Haifa	6	+2	9
7	Hapoel Katamon	6	−3	7
8	Maccabi Netanya	6	0	6
9	Maccabi Petah Tikva	6	−4	6
10	Bnei Sakhnin	6	−3	5
11	Hapoel Petah Tikva	6	−6	4
12	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	6	−8	3
13	Hapoel Ramat Gan	6	−9	3
14	Ironi Tiberias	6	−3	1