Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction · Ligat Ha'al

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Maccabi HaifaDrawHapoel Beer Sheva

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Hapoel Beer Sheva 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hapoel Beer Sheva are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Haifa 35%, draw 25%, Hapoel Beer Sheva 40%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Beer ShevaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi Haifa win35%

Draw25%

Hapoel Beer Sheva win40%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueSammy Ofer Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Haifa

Hapoel Beer Sheva

9Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligat Ha'al

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Maccabi Haifa	7	+9	18
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	7	+4	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel beer sheva winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market34%

Us40%

~~Market~~34%

We make Hapoel Beer Sheva a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi Haifa v Hapoel Beer Sheva~~1.51 – 1.65

~~Form · last six in Ligat Ha'al this season · since 31 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 16~~3 v 4

~~The market · Hapoel Beer Sheva win~~34% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Beer Sheva win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Haifa win	35%	40%	−5
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Hapoel Beer Sheva win	40%	34%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Both teams to score	63%	65%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	42%	−3
Maccabi Haifa or draw	60%	66%	−6
Maccabi Haifa clean sheet	20%	–	–
Hapoel Beer Sheva clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.2 6.3 5.8 3.2 1 5.7 11.3 8.6 4.7 2 4.9 7.9 6.4 3.6 3 2.5 4.0 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Haifa down, Hapoel Beer Sheva across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,253 Ligat Ha'al matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligat Ha'al matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi Haifa at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Beer Sheva away: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Maccabi Haifa, 1.65 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HAP 2–5 MAC · MAC 0–1 HAP · HAP 0–0 MAC · MAC 0–1 HAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligat Ha'al this season · since 31 Aug

MACCABI HAIFA

LWWWWW1–3 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 2–1

HAPOEL BEER SHEVA

DLWWWW2–2 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	8	+16	20
2	Hapoel Tel Aviv	8	+13	19
3	Maccabi Haifa	7	+9	18
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	7	+4	16
5	Beitar Jerusalem	7	+2	13
6	Bnei Sakhnin	8	0	11
7	Maccabi Netanya	8	+1	10
8	Maccabi Petah Tikva	8	−4	9
9	Hapoel Haifa	8	−4	9
10	Hapoel Katamon	8	−7	7
11	Hapoel Ramat Gan	8	−8	6
12	Hapoel Petah Tikva	7	−8	4
13	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	8	−10	3
14	Ironi Tiberias	8	−4	2