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Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel Beer Sheva

Ironi Tiberias

0–2Full time

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Ligat Ha'al · SAT 10 OCT · Tiberias Municipal Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Ironi Tiberias 0–2 Hapoel Beer Sheva HAPOEL BEER SHEVA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Beer Sheva win~~61%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.230

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.150

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Beer Sheva win at 61%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hapoel Beer Sheva was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 17–21–62
1′KICK-OFF Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel Beer Sheva
5′Much as we predicted: Hapoel Beer Sheva was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 17–22–61
45′We said Hapoel Beer Sheva at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 17–35–48
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 61% at kick-off, 48% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 61% at kick-off, 54% now
45′HALF-TIME Ironi Tiberias 0–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva
46′SECOND HALF Ironi Tiberias 0–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 61% at kick-off, 48% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Itay Rotman · Off: Pedro Miguel Santos Amador Corrected
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 61% at kick-off, 48% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 61% at kick-off, 48% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 61% at kick-off, 48% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 61% at kick-off, 48% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 61% at kick-off, 48% now
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Ironi Tiberias 0–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Ironi Tiberias 0–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva · João Victor (assist Forson Amankwah)
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ironi Tiberias · On: M. Badjie · Off: ariel cohen Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Eilel Peretz · Off: Hamode Kanaan Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: zahi ahmed · Off: guy mizrahi Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Amir Chaim·Ganah · Off: João Victor Corrected
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Ido Sharon · Ironi Tiberias
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ironi Tiberias · On: junior nene bi gbamble · Off: niv gotlieb Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ironi Tiberias · On: Samir Farhud · Off: Artur Miranyan Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Mohamad Abu Rumi · Off: Javon East Corrected
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Eilel Peretz · Hapoel Beer Sheva
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Ironi Tiberias · On: bar cohen · Off: Eden Shamir Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' zahi ahmed · Hapoel Beer Sheva
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Ironi Tiberias 0–2 Hapoel Beer Sheva · João Victor
FTFULL TIME Ironi Tiberias 0–2 Hapoel Beer Sheva
FTIroni Tiberias 0–2 Hapoel Beer Sheva · Hapoel Beer Sheva win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ironi Tiberias win17%

Draw22%

Hapoel Beer Sheva win61%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Tiberias Municipal Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ironi Tiberias

5-3-2

22 I. Sharon

14 G. Sanker

17 R. Unger

37 O. Baco

13 Z. Morgan

47 D. Joulani

18 E. Shamir

3 D. Keltjens

8 A. Cohen

9 A. Miranyan

11 N. Gotlieb

Coach · Alon Ziv

Substitutes

1 · G. Amos

19 · G. Maatuk

5 · N. Chen

10 · B. Cohen

27 · Y. Swisa

77 · A. Yehuda

7 · S. Farhud

84 · N. Gbamble

30 · M. Badjie

Hapoel Beer Sheva

4-3-3

1 O. Marciano

2 G. Mizrahi

44 D. T. Diop

4 Miguel Vitor

5 P. Amador

17 A. Forson

25 Lucas Ventura

8 H. Kanaan

20 J. East

66 I. Zlatanovic

70 Joao Victor

Coach · Ran Kozuch

Substitutes

34 · M. Wolff

15 · I. Nachmias

12 · I. Rotman

3 · M. Baltaxa

7 · E. Peretz

28 · N. Yehoshua

11 · A. C. Ganah

9 · Z. Ahmed

45 · M. Abu Rumi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ironi Tiberias

5-3-2

22 I. Sharon

14 G. Sanker

17 R. Unger

37 O. Baco

13 Z. Morgan

47 D. Joulani

18 E. Shamir

3 D. Keltjens

8 A. Cohen

9 A. Miranyan

11 N. Gotlieb

Coach · Alon Ziv

Substitutes

1 · G. Amos

19 · G. Maatuk

5 · N. Chen

10 · B. Cohen

27 · Y. Swisa

77 · A. Yehuda

7 · S. Farhud

84 · N. Gbamble

30 · M. Badjie

Hapoel Beer Sheva

4-3-3

1 O. Marciano

2 G. Mizrahi

44 D. T. Diop

4 Miguel Vitor

5 P. Amador

17 A. Forson

25 Lucas Ventura

8 H. Kanaan

20 J. East

66 I. Zlatanovic

70 Joao Victor

Coach · Ran Kozuch

Substitutes

34 · M. Wolff

15 · I. Nachmias

12 · I. Rotman

3 · M. Baltaxa

7 · E. Peretz

28 · N. Yehoshua

11 · A. C. Ganah

9 · Z. Ahmed

45 · M. Abu Rumi

Our number · hapoel beer sheva winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

61% The market69%

Us61%

~~Market~~69%

We make Hapoel Beer Sheva a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ironi Tiberias win	17%	13%	+4
Draw	22%	19%	+4
Hapoel Beer Sheva win	61%	69%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	57%	62%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	54%	0
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	42%	−6
Ironi Tiberias or draw	39%	31%	+8
Ironi Tiberias clean sheet	14%	–	–
Hapoel Beer Sheva clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.9 9.5 10.2 6.9 3.6 1 4.2 10.4 9.7 6.5 3.4 2 2.4 4.7 4.7 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ironi Tiberias down, Hapoel Beer Sheva across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,234 Ligat Ha'al matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligat Ha'al matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.6% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ironi Tiberias at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Beer Sheva away: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Ironi Tiberias, 2.03 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~IRO 3–0 HAP · HAP 7–0 IRO · HAP 4–0 IRO · IRO 0–2 HAP

Form · last six in Ligat Ha'al

IRONI TIBERIAS

WWLWDL2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–3

HAPOEL BEER SHEVA

LWDLWW2–5 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	5	+12	15
2	Maccabi Haifa	5	+5	12
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	5	+7	10
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	5	+1	10
5	Beitar Jerusalem	5	−2	9
6	Hapoel Katamon	5	0	7
7	Ironi Tiberias	5	−1	7
8	Hapoel Haifa	5	+1	6
9	Maccabi Petah Tikva	5	−3	6
10	Maccabi Netanya	5	0	5
11	Bnei Sakhnin	5	−3	4
12	Hapoel Ramat Gan	5	−5	3
13	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	5	−6	3
14	Hapoel Petah Tikva	5	−6	3