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Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Hapoel Tel Aviv

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1–3Full time

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Ligat Ha'al · SAT 10 OCT · Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–3 Hapoel Tel Aviv HAPOEL TEL AVIV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Tel Aviv win~~48%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.406

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.208

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Tel Aviv win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Tel Aviv 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 27–25–49
1′KICK-OFF Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Hapoel Tel Aviv
2′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Tel Aviv 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 27–25–49
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Hapoel Tel Aviv
21′Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead on 10′ through douglas owusu. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–17–74
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 48% at kick-off, 49% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 48% at kick-off, 49% now
23′Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead on 10′ through douglas owusu. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–17–74
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 48% at kick-off, 49% now
44′We said Hapoel Tel Aviv at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 6–18–76
45′We said Hapoel Tel Aviv at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 6–18–76
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Alexandre Mussolo Sola · Ironi Kiryat Shmona
45′HALF-TIME Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Hapoel Tel Aviv
46′SECOND HALF Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Hapoel Tel Aviv
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–2 Hapoel Tel Aviv · douglas owusu
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Ironi Kiryat Shmona · On: Niv Michael Gabay · Off: Alexandru Pop Corrected
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–2 Hapoel Tel Aviv · Emmanuel Boateng
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Fernand Mayembo · Hapoel Tel Aviv
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–3 Hapoel Tel Aviv · Emmanuel Boateng
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–3 Hapoel Tel Aviv · Omri Altman
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Ironi Kiryat Shmona · On: Shay Sabah · Off: Alexandre Mussolo Sola Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Ironi Kiryat Shmona · On: Mor Simantov · Off: Rufat Abdullazada Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ironi Kiryat Shmona · On: Bilal Shaheen · Off: Itzik Shoolmayster Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: stav torial · Off: Roee alkokin Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: Shahar Piven · Off: Marcus Coco Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Ironi Kiryat Shmona · On: Nadav Markovitch · Off: Ariel Sheratzky Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: Daniel Dappa · Off: Emmanuel Boateng Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: Mor Buskila · Off: Omri Altman Corrected
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Shay Sabah · Ironi Kiryat Shmona
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: Roy Korine · Off: douglas owusu Corrected
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Shahar Piven · Hapoel Tel Aviv
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–3 Hapoel Tel Aviv · Amadou Sagna
FTFULL TIME Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–3 Hapoel Tel Aviv
FTIroni Kiryat Shmona 1–3 Hapoel Tel Aviv · Hapoel Tel Aviv win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ironi Kiryat Shmona win26%

Draw26%

Hapoel Tel Aviv win48%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:15

Venue · Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

4-2-3-1

19 D. Tenenbaum

20 O. Darwish

26 N. Ljubisavljevic

32 S. David

17 I. Sholmyster

63 A. Sola

8 Talles Costa

7 A. Sagna

21 R. Abdullazada

10 A. Sheratzky

9 A. Pop

Coach · Shai Barda

Substitutes

1 · N. Djurkovic

28 · I. Vaier

44 · S. Edri

91 · B. Shaheen

11 · S. Sabah

24 · N. Markovitch

16 · M. Siman Tov

12 · J. Halabi

39 · N. Gabay

Hapoel Tel Aviv

4-2-3-1

22 A. Tzur

97 M. Coco

5 F. Mayembo

4 Chico

32 Y. Leliendal

98 Falcao

14 E. Y. Kancepolsky

35 D. Owusu

15 R. Alkoukin

51 O. Altman

9 E. Boateng

Coach · Elyaniv Barda

Substitutes

1 · D. Benyamini

21 · S. Piven

18 · T. Archel

16 · D. Leidner

23 · A. Lemkin

7 · R. Korine

11 · S. Turiel

27 · M. Buskila

44 · D. Dappa

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

4-2-3-1

19 D. Tenenbaum

20 O. Darwish

26 N. Ljubisavljevic

32 S. David

17 I. Sholmyster

63 A. Sola

8 Talles Costa

7 A. Sagna

21 R. Abdullazada

10 A. Sheratzky

9 A. Pop

Coach · Shai Barda

Substitutes

1 · N. Djurkovic

28 · I. Vaier

44 · S. Edri

91 · B. Shaheen

11 · S. Sabah

24 · N. Markovitch

16 · M. Siman Tov

12 · J. Halabi

39 · N. Gabay

Hapoel Tel Aviv

4-2-3-1

22 A. Tzur

97 M. Coco

5 F. Mayembo

4 Chico

32 Y. Leliendal

98 Falcao

14 E. Y. Kancepolsky

35 D. Owusu

15 R. Alkoukin

51 O. Altman

9 E. Boateng

Coach · Elyaniv Barda

Substitutes

1 · D. Benyamini

21 · S. Piven

18 · T. Archel

16 · D. Leidner

23 · A. Lemkin

7 · R. Korine

11 · S. Turiel

27 · M. Buskila

44 · D. Dappa

Our number · hapoel tel aviv winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

48% The market63%

Us48%

~~Market~~63%

We make Hapoel Tel Aviv a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ironi Kiryat Shmona win	26%	15%	+11
Draw	26%	22%	+4
Hapoel Tel Aviv win	48%	63%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	52%	53%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	50%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	32%	−2
Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw	52%	37%	+15
Ironi Kiryat Shmona clean sheet	20%	–	–
Hapoel Tel Aviv clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.3 9.5 8.3 4.5 1 6.4 12.3 9.3 5.1 2.1 2 4.1 6.5 5.3 2.9 3 2.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ironi Kiryat Shmona down, Hapoel Tel Aviv across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,234 Ligat Ha&amp;#x27;al matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligat Ha&amp;#x27;al matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.6% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.71 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Tel Aviv away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 1.63 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~IRO 2–2 HAP · HAP 2–1 IRO · HAP 2–2 IRO · IRO 0–1 HAP

Form · last six in Ligat Ha'al

IRONI KIRYAT SHMONA

LLWLLL2–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 0–4 · 0–1

HAPOEL TEL AVIV

DDWWLW1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 1–4 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	5	+12	15
2	Maccabi Haifa	5	+5	12
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	5	+7	10
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	5	+1	10
5	Beitar Jerusalem	5	−2	9
6	Hapoel Katamon	5	0	7
7	Ironi Tiberias	5	−1	7
8	Hapoel Haifa	5	+1	6
9	Maccabi Petah Tikva	5	−3	6
10	Maccabi Netanya	5	0	5
11	Bnei Sakhnin	5	−3	4
12	Hapoel Ramat Gan	5	−5	3
13	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	5	−6	3
14	Hapoel Petah Tikva	5	−6	3