Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Bnei Sakhnin prediction · Ligat Ha'al

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Bnei Sakhnin IRONI KIRYAT SHMONA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ironi Kiryat Shmona win~~41%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.751

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.768

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ironi Kiryat Shmona win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ironi Kiryat Shmona was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–30–29
1′KICK-OFF Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Bnei Sakhnin
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Bnei Sakhnin
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ironi Kiryat Shmona win 36%)
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' shon edri · Ironi Kiryat Shmona
40′We said Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–23–66
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Bnei Sakhnin
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Ironi Kiryat Shmona win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Bnei Sakhnin win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 40%)
41′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 10–23–67
41′Saná Gomes scores for Bnei Sakhnin on 40′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–67
44′We said Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
45′HALF-TIME Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Bnei Sakhnin
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ironi Kiryat Shmona · On: Niv Michael Gabay · Off: Alexandru Pop
48′SECOND HALF Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Bnei Sakhnin
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Ironi Kiryat Shmona · On: Jwan Halabi · Off: Ariel Sheratzky
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Ironi Kiryat Shmona · On: Shay Sabah · Off: Rufat Abdullazada
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Ironi Kiryat Shmona · On: Nadav Markovitch · Off: Talles Costa
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Shay Ben David · Ironi Kiryat Shmona
63′We said Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ironi Kiryat Shmona · On: Amit Glazer · Off: shon edri
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bnei Sakhnin · On: maroun gantus · Off: Ilay Hajaj
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bnei Sakhnin · On: Loai Halaf · Off: Daniel Paraschiv
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bnei Sakhnin · On: Jubayer Bushnak · Off: Ahmed Ibrahim Salman
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Ironi Kiryat Shmona win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Bnei Sakhnin · On: Antonio Sefer · Off: Mathew Anim Cudjoe
FTFULL TIME Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Bnei Sakhnin
FTIroni Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Bnei Sakhnin · Ironi Kiryat Shmona win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ironi Kiryat Shmona are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 41%, draw 30%, Bnei Sakhnin 30%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Bnei SakhninBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ironi Kiryat Shmona win41%

Draw30%

Bnei Sakhnin win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 8

VenueKiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium

Line-ups

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

4-2-3-1

Bnei Sakhnin

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Bnei Sakhnin

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligat Ha'al

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Bnei Sakhnin	7	−1	8
13	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	7	−9	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

4-2-3-1

19 Daniel

28 I. Vaier

44 S. Edri

32 S. Ben-David

91 B. Shaheen

63 Alexandre Sola

8 Talles Costa

7 A. Sagna

10 A. Shirdatzki

21 R. Abdullazadə

9 A. Pop

Coach · S. Barda

Substitutes

1 · Nikola Djurkovic

16 · M. Simantov

17 · I. Shoolmayster

11 · S. Sabah

24 · N. Markovitch

4 · A. Glazer

12 · J. Al Halabi

20 · O. Darwish

39 · N. Gabay

Bnei Sakhnin

5-4-1

1 R. Bălbărău

29 A. Salman

5 I. Abu Abaid

13 L. Owusu

4 O. Dahan

92 Saná Gomes

10 M. Anim Cudjoe

8 M. Vorobjovas

6 A. Taha

28 I. Hagag

9 D. Paraschiv

Coach · Y. Abukasis

Substitutes

77 · A. Sefer

22 · M. Abu Nil

21 · M. Abu Riya

11 · J. Bushnaq

20 · M. Ganame

2 · M. Gantus

44 · A. Gnameh

16 · L. Halaf

24 · B. Khuri

Our number · ironi kiryat shmona winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market42%

Us41%

~~Market~~42%

We make Ironi Kiryat Shmona a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Bnei Sakhnin~~1.29 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Ligat Ha'al this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 3 v 8~~13 v 8

~~The market · Ironi Kiryat Shmona win~~42% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ironi Kiryat Shmona win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ironi Kiryat Shmona win	41%	42%	−1
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Bnei Sakhnin win	30%	29%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	42%	44%	−2
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	24%	−3
Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw	70%	71%	−1
Ironi Kiryat Shmona clean sheet	35%	–	–
Bnei Sakhnin clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.7 9.1 5.4 1 11.3 13.9 6.8 2.4 2 7.9 8.3 4.4 3 3.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ironi Kiryat Shmona down, Bnei Sakhnin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,248 Ligat Ha'al matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligat Ha'al matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.2% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bnei Sakhnin away: 0.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 1.06 for Bnei Sakhnin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~IRO 1–0 BNE · BNE 0–4 IRO · IRO 2–0 BNE · BNE 1–1 IRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligat Ha'al this season · since 29 Aug

IRONI KIRYAT SHMONA

WLLLLL2–0 · 2–4 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

BNEI SAKHNIN

LLLWDW1–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maccabi Haifa	7	+9	18
2	Maccabi Tel Aviv	7	+12	17
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	7	+10	16
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	7	+4	16
5	Beitar Jerusalem	7	+2	13
6	Maccabi Netanya	7	+1	9
7	Hapoel Haifa	7	0	9
8	Bnei Sakhnin	7	−1	8
9	Hapoel Katamon	7	−4	7
10	Maccabi Petah Tikva	7	−5	6
11	Hapoel Ramat Gan	7	−7	6
12	Hapoel Petah Tikva	7	−8	4
13	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	7	−9	3
14	Ironi Tiberias	7	−4	1