Hapoel Tel Aviv v Ironi Tiberias prediction · Ligat Ha'al

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–0 Ironi Tiberias HAPOEL TEL AVIV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Tel Aviv win~~55%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.308

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.084

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Tel Aviv win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Tel Aviv 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–26–20
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Tel Aviv v Ironi Tiberias
4′🟥 RED CARD · 4' Hapoel Tel Aviv
6′Hapoel Tel Aviv are down to ten from 4′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 54–26–20
11′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Ziv Morgan · Ironi Tiberias
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Fernand Mayembo · Hapoel Tel Aviv
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' junior nene bi gbamble · Ironi Tiberias
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
43′We said Hapoel Tel Aviv at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–37–19
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–0 Ironi Tiberias
45′SECOND HALF Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–0 Ironi Tiberias
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ironi Tiberias · On: ariel cohen · Off: Guy Sanker
50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+5' Marcus Coco · Hapoel Tel Aviv
52′We said Hapoel Tel Aviv at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–18
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Hapoel Tel Aviv win 38%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 38–45–18
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
61′We said Hapoel Tel Aviv at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–16
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: stav torial · Off: Emmanuel Boateng
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Daniel Dappa · Hapoel Tel Aviv
67′We said Hapoel Tel Aviv at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–15
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
73′We said Hapoel Tel Aviv at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–64–12
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ironi Tiberias · On: M. Badjie · Off: junior nene bi gbamble
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ironi Tiberias · On: Ghanam Case · Off: Artur Miranyan
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: Amit lemkin · Off: Roee alkokin
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: tal archel · Off: yam el kancepolsky
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' tal archel · Hapoel Tel Aviv
78′We said Hapoel Tel Aviv at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–72–10
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Ido Sharon · Ironi Tiberias
81′We said Hapoel Tel Aviv at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–7–0
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–0 Ironi Tiberias
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 55% at kick-off, 92% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Hapoel Tel Aviv win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 7%)
82′Omri Altman scores for Hapoel Tel Aviv on 81′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 93–7–0
84′We said Hapoel Tel Aviv at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: Daniel Dappa · Off: Omri Altman
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: Doron Leidner · Off: douglas owusu
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ironi Tiberias · On: Samir Farhud · Off: niv gotlieb
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ironi Tiberias · On: Chris Kouakou · Off: David Keltjens
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–0 Ironi Tiberias
FTHapoel Tel Aviv 1–0 Ironi Tiberias · Hapoel Tel Aviv win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hapoel Tel Aviv are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Tel Aviv 55%, draw 25%, Ironi Tiberias 20%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Tel Aviv v Ironi TiberiasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Tel Aviv win55%

Draw25%

Ironi Tiberias win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 7

VenueBloomfield Stadium

Line-ups

Hapoel Tel Aviv

4-2-3-1

Ironi Tiberias

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Ironi Tiberias

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligat Ha'al

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	6	+9	13
14	Ironi Tiberias	6	−3	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hapoel Tel Aviv

4-2-3-1

22 A. Tzur

97 M. Coco

5 F. Mayembo

4 Chico

32 Y. Leliendal

14 E. Kancepolsky

6 A. Kraev

35 D. Owusu

15 R. Alkokin

51 O. Altman

9 E. Boateng

Coach · E. Barda

Substitutes

18 · T. Archel

1 · Dor Benyamini

27 · M. Buskila

44 · D. Dappa

7 · R. Korine

16 · D. Leidner

23 · A. Lemkin

21 · S. Piven

11 · S. Torial

Ironi Tiberias

5-3-2

22 I. Sharon

14 G. Sanker

17 R. Unger

37 O. Bačo

13 Z. Morgan

47 D. Golani

18 E. Shamir

11 niv gotlieb

3 D. Keltjens

9 A. Miranyan

84 N. Gbamblé

Coach · A. Ziv

Substitutes

23 · C. Kouakou

5 · N. Chen

12 · Ghanam Case

7 · S. Farhud

8 · A. Cohen

10 · B. Cohen

30 · M. Badjie

1 · G. Amos

27 · Y. Swisa

Our number · hapoel tel aviv winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market77%

Us55%

~~Market~~77%

We make Hapoel Tel Aviv a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 22 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Tel Aviv v Ironi Tiberias~~1.74 – 0.95

~~Form · Ligat Ha'al this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 1~~3 v 14

~~The market · Hapoel Tel Aviv win~~77% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Tel Aviv win	55%	77%	−22
Draw	25%	15%	+10
Ironi Tiberias win	20%	8%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	50%	62%	−12
Both teams to score	51%	46%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	41%	−12
Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw	80%	92%	−12
Hapoel Tel Aviv clean sheet	39%	–	–
Ironi Tiberias clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.9 5.7 3.1 1 10.9 12.0 5.3 2 10.2 9.5 4.6 3 5.9 5.5 2.6 4 2.6 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Tel Aviv down, Ironi Tiberias across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,241 Ligat Ha'al matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligat Ha'al matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Tel Aviv at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ironi Tiberias away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv, 0.95 for Ironi Tiberias. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~IRO 0–2 HAP · HAP 2–0 IRO · IRO 0–2 HAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligat Ha'al this season · since 22 Aug

HAPOEL TEL AVIV

DWWLWW0–0 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 3–1

IRONI TIBERIAS

WLWDLL1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	6	+12	16
2	Maccabi Haifa	6	+8	15
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	6	+9	13
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	+3	13
5	Beitar Jerusalem	6	+2	12
6	Hapoel Haifa	6	+2	9
7	Hapoel Katamon	6	−3	7
8	Maccabi Netanya	6	0	6
9	Maccabi Petah Tikva	6	−4	6
10	Bnei Sakhnin	6	−3	5
11	Hapoel Petah Tikva	6	−6	4
12	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	6	−8	3
13	Hapoel Ramat Gan	6	−9	3
14	Ironi Tiberias	6	−3	1