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Hapoel Petah Tikva v Maccabi Netanya

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1–1Full time

Maccabi Netanya

Ligat Ha'al · SAT 10 OCT · HaMoshava Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1–1 Maccabi Netanya MACCABI NETANYA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Maccabi Netanya win~~39%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.816

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.899

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi Netanya win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Maccabi Netanya was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Petah Tikva v Maccabi Netanya
2′Much as we predicted: Maccabi Netanya was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–0 Maccabi Netanya
22′Maccabi Netanya find the net on 4′. 0–0. 0–0 · 34–29–37
24′Maccabi Netanya find the net on 4′. 0–0. 0–0 · 33–30–37
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Maccabi Netanya win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–0 Maccabi Netanya
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–0 Maccabi Netanya
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Maccabi Netanya win 33%)
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Maccabi Netanya win 33%)
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Maccabi Netanya win 33%)
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Maccabi Netanya win 33%)
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Hapoel Petah Tikva 1–0 Maccabi Netanya
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Maccabi Netanya win 33%)
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Maccabi Netanya win 33%)
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Maccabi Netanya win 33%)
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Maccabi Netanya · On: Dor Hugy · Off: Nadav Niddam Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Maccabi Netanya · On: benny feldman · Off: Amit Cohen Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Maccabi Netanya · On: Eylon Almog · Off: Basam Zaarura Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Maccabi Netanya · On: Eylon Almog · Off: Basam Zaarura Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hapoel Petah Tikva · On: Noam Cohen · Off: Roee David Corrected
77′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Omer Peretz · Hapoel Petah Tikva
79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' benny feldman · Maccabi Netanya
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Hapoel Petah Tikva · On: Harel Shalom · Off: Edmond Asante Corrected
89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' alon azugi · Maccabi Netanya
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Maccabi Netanya · On: Valentin Simion · Off: Aziz Ouattara Mohammed Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Valentin Simion · Maccabi Netanya
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Hapoel Petah Tikva · On: Guy Badash · Off: Yves Erick Bile Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Hapoel Petah Tikva · On: Tomer Altman · Off: Boni Amian Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Hapoel Petah Tikva · On: Euclides·Tavares Andrade · Off: Roei Levy Corrected
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Hapoel Petah Tikva 1–0 Maccabi Netanya · Maor Levi
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Hapoel Petah Tikva 1–1 Maccabi Netanya · Maor Levi
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Petah Tikva 1–1 Maccabi Netanya
FTHapoel Petah Tikva 1–1 Maccabi Netanya · Maccabi Netanya win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hapoel Petah Tikva win35%

Draw26%

Maccabi Netanya win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:15

Venue · HaMoshava Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Hapoel Petah Tikva

4-2-3-1

1 O. Katz

12 S. Israeli

5 A. Moucketou-Moussounda

20 O. Israelov

72 Y. Nassar

6 I. Ehud

29 B. Amian

7 R. Levy

16 R. David

14 E. Asante

9 E. Bile

Coach · Omer Peretz

Substitutes

18 · A. Mashiah

3 · H. Shalom

33 · Z. Grinberg

8 · T. Altman

28 · N. Cohen

24 · G. Badash

77 · Cle

34 · O. Cohen

15 · N. Asal

Maccabi Netanya

4-3-3

22 Samu

12 A. Azugi

23 O. Verdon

6 B. Konate

24 A. Cohen

16 B. Zaarura

32 A. Ouattara

13 N. Niddam

10 O. Bilu

83 Matheus Davo

7 Isaac

Coach · Ronny Levy

Substitutes

1 · N. Antman

26 · K. Jaber

5 · D. Kulikov

44 · B. Feldman

98 · G. Simion

15 · M. Levi

11 · D. Hugi

9 · E. Almog

21 · A. Talpa

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Hapoel Petah Tikva

4-2-3-1

1 O. Katz

12 S. Israeli

5 A. Moucketou-Moussounda

20 O. Israelov

72 Y. Nassar

6 I. Ehud

29 B. Amian

7 R. Levy

16 R. David

14 E. Asante

9 E. Bile

Coach · Omer Peretz

Substitutes

18 · A. Mashiah

3 · H. Shalom

33 · Z. Grinberg

8 · T. Altman

28 · N. Cohen

24 · G. Badash

77 · Cle

34 · O. Cohen

15 · N. Asal

Maccabi Netanya

4-3-3

22 Samu

12 A. Azugi

23 O. Verdon

6 B. Konate

24 A. Cohen

16 B. Zaarura

32 A. Ouattara

13 N. Niddam

10 O. Bilu

83 Matheus Davo

7 Isaac

Coach · Ronny Levy

Substitutes

1 · N. Antman

26 · K. Jaber

5 · D. Kulikov

44 · B. Feldman

98 · G. Simion

15 · M. Levi

11 · D. Hugi

9 · E. Almog

21 · A. Talpa

Our number · maccabi netanya winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

39% The market53%

Us39%

~~Market~~53%

We make Maccabi Netanya a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Petah Tikva win	35%	23%	+12
Draw	26%	25%	+2
Maccabi Netanya win	39%	53%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Both teams to score	59%	56%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw	61%	47%	+14
Hapoel Petah Tikva clean sheet	23%	–	–
Maccabi Netanya clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.5 7.5 6.2 3.1 1 7.0 12.2 8.5 4.3 2 5.4 8.0 5.9 3.0 3 2.6 3.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Petah Tikva down, Maccabi Netanya across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,234 Ligat Ha&#x27;al matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligat Ha&#x27;al matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.6% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Petah Tikva at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi Netanya away: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Hapoel Petah Tikva, 1.50 for Maccabi Netanya. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MAC 0–2 HAP · HAP 3–1 MAC · HAP 1–3 MAC · HAP 2–0 MAC

Form · last six in Ligat Ha'al

HAPOEL PETAH TIKVA

DLWLLL2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3

MACCABI NETANYA

WDWDLL4–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	5	+12	15
2	Maccabi Haifa	5	+5	12
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	5	+7	10
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	5	+1	10
5	Beitar Jerusalem	5	−2	9
6	Hapoel Katamon	5	0	7
7	Ironi Tiberias	5	−1	7
8	Hapoel Haifa	5	+1	6
9	Maccabi Petah Tikva	5	−3	6
10	Maccabi Netanya	5	0	5
11	Bnei Sakhnin	5	−3	4
12	Hapoel Ramat Gan	5	−5	3
13	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	5	−6	3
14	Hapoel Petah Tikva	5	−6	3