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Hapoel Katamon v Maccabi Haifa

Hapoel Katamon

1–4Full time

Maccabi Haifa

Ligat Ha'al · MON 12 OCT · Taddi Malcha

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:01

Hapoel Katamon 1–4 Maccabi Haifa MACCABI HAIFA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi Haifa win~~53%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.337

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.264

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi Haifa win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Maccabi Haifa 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 23–23–53
2′Little has changed for our model: Maccabi Haifa 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 23–23–53
27′26′ and it is 1–0: andrew idoko on the scoresheet for Hapoel Katamon. 1–0 · 52–26–22
29′We said Maccabi Haifa at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 53–26–21
31′26′ and it is 1–0: andrew idoko on the scoresheet for Hapoel Katamon. 1–0 · 53–26–21
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Maccabi Haifa win: 53% at kick-off, 21% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Hapoel Katamon win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Maccabi Haifa win 21%)
33′We said Maccabi Haifa at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 54–26–20
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Maccabi Haifa win: 53% at kick-off, 21% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Hapoel Katamon win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Maccabi Haifa win 21%)
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Maccabi Haifa win: 53% at kick-off, 21% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Hapoel Katamon win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Maccabi Haifa win 21%)
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Andrija Novakovich · Maccabi Haifa
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Maccabi Haifa win: 53% at kick-off, 21% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Hapoel Katamon win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Maccabi Haifa win 21%)
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Maccabi Haifa win: 53% at kick-off, 21% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Hapoel Katamon win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Maccabi Haifa win 21%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Maccabi Haifa win: 53% at kick-off, 21% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Hapoel Katamon win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Maccabi Haifa win 21%)
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Hapoel Katamon 1–1 Maccabi Haifa · andrew idoko
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Hapoel Katamon 1–1 Maccabi Haifa · Andrija Novakovich
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Maccabi Haifa win: 53% at kick-off, 21% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Hapoel Katamon win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Maccabi Haifa win 21%)
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Hapoel Katamon 1–2 Maccabi Haifa · Andrija Novakovich
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Hapoel Katamon 1–2 Maccabi Haifa · Pedro Brazão
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Ilay Madmon · Hapoel Katamon
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Katamon 1–2 Maccabi Haifa
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Katamon 1–2 Maccabi Haifa
52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Hapoel Katamon · On: Vitalie Damașcan · Off: N. Vrasana
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Hapoel Katamon · On: ohad almagor · Off: Zuberu Sharani
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Hapoel Katamon · On: israel dappa · Off: Edward Chilufya
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Hapoel Katamon · On: Omer Abuhav · Off: Ilay Madmon
64′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Kenny Saief · Maccabi Haifa
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Hapoel Katamon 1–3 Maccabi Haifa · Pedro Brazão
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Hapoel Katamon 1–3 Maccabi Haifa · Kenji Gorre
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hapoel Katamon · On: Idan Cohen · Off: omer agvadish
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Maccabi Haifa · On: Yarin Levi · Off: Ethane Azoulay
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Maccabi Haifa · On: Iyad khalaili · Off: Kenny Saief
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Maccabi Haifa · On: Tsunami · Off: Kenji Gorre
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Hapoel Katamon 1–4 Maccabi Haifa · Kenji Gorre
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Maccabi Haifa · On: Guy Melamed · Off: Andrija Novakovich
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Hapoel Katamon 1–4 Maccabi Haifa · Guy Melamed
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Maccabi Haifa · On: Yair mordechai · Off: Pedro Brazão
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Katamon 1–4 Maccabi Haifa
FTHapoel Katamon 1–4 Maccabi Haifa · Maccabi Haifa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:02 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Katamon win23%

Draw25%

Maccabi Haifa win53%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:30

VenueTaddi Malcha

Line-ups

Hapoel Katamon

5-4-1

Maccabi Haifa

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hapoel Katamon

Maccabi Haifa

23Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Maccabi Haifa	5	+5	12
7	Hapoel Katamon	5	0	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hapoel Katamon

5-4-1

55 N. Zamir

70 S. Zuberu

16 O. Agvadish

3 N. Malmud

22 T. Haimovich

18 L. Mizrachi

19 N. Vrasana

8 I. Madmon

91 C. Tiéhi

25 A. Idoko

9 E. Chilufya

Coach · L. Zada

Substitutes

14 · O. Abuhav

10 · V. Damaşcan

33 · I. Daphah

11 · Y. Distalfeld

1 · B. Gordin Anbary

20 · O. Nadir

21 · Hilay Sharabi Melman

7 · O. Almagor

26 · I. Cohen

Maccabi Haifa

4-2-3-1

55 O. Glazer

25 J. Bataille

21 N. Lonwijk

35 N. Sztejfman

16 K. Saief

19 E. Azoulay

4 A. Muhammad

30 Pedro Brazão

10 Bruninho

11 K. Gorré

9 A. Novaković

Coach · B. Bakhar

Substitutes

29 · Iyad Khalaili

8 · Y. Levi

18 · G. Melamed

7 · Y. Mordechai

1 · yaacov omer on nir

36 · N. Ratner

66 · Tsunami

26 · S. Kani

44 · Pedrão

Our number · maccabi haifa winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:02 · locked at kick-off

53% The market58%

Us53%

~~Market~~58%

We make Maccabi Haifa a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.8.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Katamon win	23%	19%	+4
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Maccabi Haifa win	53%	58%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	55%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	39%	−5
Hapoel Katamon or draw	47%	42%	+6
Hapoel Katamon clean sheet	17%	–	–
Maccabi Haifa clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.5 9.0 8.8 5.3 2.4 1 5.3 11.6 9.6 5.8 2.6 2 3.4 6.0 5.3 3.2 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Katamon down, Maccabi Haifa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,240 Ligat Ha'al matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligat Ha'al matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.9% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 9 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Katamon at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi Haifa away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Hapoel Katamon, 1.80 for Maccabi Haifa. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 18:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 12

~~Both scored~~9 of 12

~~Last meetings~~HAP 1–1 MAC · MAC 2–2 HAP · MAC 3–3 HAP · HAP 0–0 MAC

Form · last six in Ligat Ha'al

HAPOEL KATAMON

LLLWDW0–2 · 2–5 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 4–2

MACCABI HAIFA

WWLWWW5–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	6	+12	16
2	Hapoel Tel Aviv	6	+9	13
3	Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	+3	13
4	Maccabi Haifa	5	+5	12
5	Beitar Jerusalem	6	+2	12
6	Hapoel Haifa	6	+2	9
7	Hapoel Katamon	5	0	7
8	Ironi Tiberias	6	−3	7
9	Maccabi Netanya	6	0	6
10	Maccabi Petah Tikva	6	−4	6
11	Bnei Sakhnin	6	−3	5
12	Hapoel Petah Tikva	6	−6	4
13	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	6	−8	3
14	Hapoel Ramat Gan	6	−9	3