Hapoel Katamon v Hapoel Tel Aviv prediction · Ligat Ha'al

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Hapoel Katamon 0–3 Hapoel Tel Aviv HAPOEL TEL AVIV WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Tel Aviv win~~46%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.444

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.194

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Tel Aviv win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hapoel Tel Aviv was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 26–29–46
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Katamon v Hapoel Tel Aviv
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' douglas owusu · Hapoel Tel Aviv
42′We published Hapoel Tel Aviv at 46%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 5–18–77
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Hapoel Katamon 0–1 Hapoel Tel Aviv
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 46% at kick-off, 77% now
43′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 5–18–77
43′Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead on 43′ through Daniel Dappa. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–18–77
44′Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead on 42′ through Daniel Dappa. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–18–77
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Katamon 0–1 Hapoel Tel Aviv
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: Roee alkokin · Off: stav torial
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Katamon 0–1 Hapoel Tel Aviv
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Lucas de Oliveira Teodoro Falcão · Hapoel Tel Aviv
53′We published Hapoel Tel Aviv at 46%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 1–3–96
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Hapoel Katamon 0–2 Hapoel Tel Aviv
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Hapoel Tel Aviv win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
54′Omri Altman scores for Hapoel Tel Aviv on 53′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–96
56′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Hapoel Katamon · On: N. Vrasana · Off: Ilay Madmon
59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' N. Malmud · Hapoel Katamon
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Hapoel Katamon · On: Ariel Yanai Distelfeld · Off: N. Malmud
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Hapoel Katamon · On: Omer Abuhav · Off: nati shafrau
66′We published Hapoel Tel Aviv at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
66′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
66′65′: Roee alkokin on the scoresheet for Hapoel Tel Aviv, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Hapoel Katamon 0–3 Hapoel Tel Aviv
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hapoel Katamon · On: ohad almagor · Off: Vitalie Damașcan
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: Roy Korine · Off: douglas owusu
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Hapoel Katamon · On: omer agvadish · Off: Zuberu Sharani
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Yannick Leliendal · Hapoel Tel Aviv
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' ohad almagor · Hapoel Katamon
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: Shahar Piven · Off: Marcus Coco
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: Doron Leidner · Off: Yannick Leliendal
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Hapoel Tel Aviv · On: Mor Buskila · Off: Lucas de Oliveira Teodoro Falcão
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Katamon 0–3 Hapoel Tel Aviv
FTHapoel Katamon 0–3 Hapoel Tel Aviv · Hapoel Tel Aviv win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hapoel Tel Aviv are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Katamon 26%, draw 29%, Hapoel Tel Aviv 46%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Katamon v Hapoel Tel AvivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Katamon win26%

Draw29%

Hapoel Tel Aviv win46%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 8

VenueTaddi Malcha

Line-ups

Hapoel Katamon

4-4-2

Hapoel Tel Aviv

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Katamon

Hapoel Tel Aviv

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligat Ha'al

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligat Ha'al

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	7	+10	16
9	Hapoel Katamon	7	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hapoel Katamon

4-4-2

55 N. Zamir

26 I. Cohen

21 Hilay Sharabi Melman

3 N. Malmud

70 S. Zuberu

23 Nati Shafrau

8 I. Madmon

22 T. Haimovich

25 A. Idoko

91 C. Tiéhi

10 V. Damaşcan

Coach · L. Zada

Substitutes

14 · O. Abuhav

16 · O. Agvadish

7 · O. Almagor

33 · I. Daphah

11 · Y. Distalfeld

1 · B. Gordin Anbary

18 · L. Mizrachi

31 · Hamza Mohammed

19 · N. Vrasana

Hapoel Tel Aviv

4-2-3-1

22 A. Tzur

97 M. Coco

5 F. Mayembo

4 Chico

32 Y. Leliendal

98 Falcão

14 E. Kancepolsky

11 S. Torial

35 D. Owusu

51 O. Altman

44 D. Dappa

Coach · E. Barda

Substitutes

21 · S. Piven

23 · A. Lemkin

16 · D. Leidner

7 · R. Korine

27 · M. Buskila

1 · Dor Benyamini

18 · T. Archel

15 · R. Alkokin

17 · I. Shavit

Our number · hapoel tel aviv winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market64%

Us46%

~~Market~~64%

We make Hapoel Tel Aviv a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Katamon v Hapoel Tel Aviv~~1.01 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Ligat Ha'al this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 16~~9 v 3

~~The market · Hapoel Tel Aviv win~~64% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Tel Aviv win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Katamon win	26%	15%	+11
Draw	29%	21%	+8
Hapoel Tel Aviv win	46%	64%	−18
Over 2.5 goals	44%	55%	−11
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	78%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	23%	34%	−11
Hapoel Katamon or draw	54%	36%	+18
Hapoel Katamon clean sheet	24%	–	–
Hapoel Tel Aviv clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.9 11.5 8.9 4.3 1 7.9 13.4 8.8 4.2 2 4.5 6.3 4.5 2.1 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Katamon down, Hapoel Tel Aviv across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,248 Ligat Ha'al matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligat Ha'al matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.2% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Katamon at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Tel Aviv away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Hapoel Katamon, 1.43 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TEL 3–1 KAT · KAT 0–0 TEL · TEL 3–0 KAT · KAT 2–0 TEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligat Ha'al this season · since 29 Aug

HAPOEL KATAMON

LWDWLL0–1 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 1–4 · 1–2

HAPOEL TEL AVIV

WWLWWW3–0 · 4–0 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maccabi Haifa	7	+9	18
2	Maccabi Tel Aviv	7	+12	17
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	7	+10	16
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	7	+4	16
5	Beitar Jerusalem	7	+2	13
6	Maccabi Netanya	7	+1	9
7	Hapoel Haifa	7	0	9
8	Bnei Sakhnin	7	−1	8
9	Hapoel Katamon	7	−4	7
10	Maccabi Petah Tikva	7	−5	6
11	Hapoel Ramat Gan	7	−7	6
12	Hapoel Petah Tikva	7	−8	4
13	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	7	−9	3
14	Ironi Tiberias	7	−4	1