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Hapoel Haifa v Maccabi Petah Tikva

Hapoel Haifa

2–1Full time

Maccabi Petah Tikva

Ligat Ha'al · SAT 10 OCT · Sammy Ofer Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Hapoel Haifa 2–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva HAPOEL HAIFA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Haifa win~~48%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.404

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.415

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Haifa win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hapoel Haifa was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–27
5′Much as we predicted: Hapoel Haifa was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–26
23′Alon Turgeman scores for Hapoel Haifa on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–8
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
29′Alon Turgeman scores for Hapoel Haifa on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–8
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
36′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Maccabi Petah Tikva · On: Ido Cohen · Off: Lior Kasa Corrected
45′We published Hapoel Haifa at 48%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–6
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' C Diakité · Hapoel Haifa
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Haifa 1–0 Maccabi Petah Tikva
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Haifa 1–0 Maccabi Petah Tikva
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Hapoel Haifa win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Maccabi Petah Tikva · On: Bashar Abdach · Off: Eitan Tibi Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Maccabi Petah Tikva · On: K. Spence · Off: Marko Rakonjac Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hapoel Haifa · On: Dor Malul · Off: Arial Mendy Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hapoel Haifa · On: Israel Sali Pahima · Off: Shai Elias Corrected
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Hapoel Haifa 1–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva · Alon Turgeman
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Hapoel Haifa 1–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva · Guy Deznet
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Aviv Salem · Maccabi Petah Tikva
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Maccabi Petah Tikva · On: Dan Lee-Yam · Off: Liran Hazan Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Hapoel Haifa · On: Itai Zafrani · Off: Liran Rotman Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Maccabi Petah Tikva · On: Itay Baruch · Off: Aviv Salem Corrected
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Hapoel Haifa 2–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva · Guy Deznet
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Hapoel Haifa 2–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva · Itai Zafrani
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Dario Župarić · Hapoel Haifa
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Hapoel Haifa 2–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva · Guy Deznet
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Hapoel Haifa 2–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva · Israel Sali Pahima
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Haifa 2–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva
FTHapoel Haifa 2–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva · Hapoel Haifa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hapoel Haifa win48%

Draw26%

Maccabi Petah Tikva win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Sammy Ofer Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Hapoel Haifa

4-2-3-1

1 Y. Gerafi

2 N. Cohen

13 D. Zuparic

5 I. Kricak

77 A. Mendy

55 N. Sabag

8 C. Keita

21 C. Diakite

10 S. Elias

7 L. Rotman

17 A. Turgeman

Coach · Haim Silvas

Substitutes

23 · M. Ambar

4 · D. Malul

3 · T. Arbel

25 · G. Diba

11 · I. S. Pahima

14 · W. Habiballah

18 · I. Zafrani

20 · A. Hamam

19 · S. Elkayam

Maccabi Petah Tikva

4-5-1

39 M. Erlich

26 G. Deznet

18 E. Tibi

6 E. Yao

17 A. Salem

9 S. Owusu

24 L. Kassa

99 E. Inbrum

53 L. Hazan

77 J. Cortes

97 M. Rakonjac

Coach · Ziv Arie

Substitutes

1 · D. Hevron

30 · O. Dadia

12 · I. Baruch

22 · B. Abdach

20 · I. Cohen

8 · D. Lee Yam

7 · K. C. Spence

10 · A. Lugassi

27 · Y. Koren

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Hapoel Haifa

4-2-3-1

1 Y. Gerafi

2 N. Cohen

13 D. Zuparic

5 I. Kricak

77 A. Mendy

55 N. Sabag

8 C. Keita

21 C. Diakite

10 S. Elias

7 L. Rotman

17 A. Turgeman

Coach · Haim Silvas

Substitutes

23 · M. Ambar

4 · D. Malul

3 · T. Arbel

25 · G. Diba

11 · I. S. Pahima

14 · W. Habiballah

18 · I. Zafrani

20 · A. Hamam

19 · S. Elkayam

Maccabi Petah Tikva

4-5-1

39 M. Erlich

26 G. Deznet

18 E. Tibi

6 E. Yao

17 A. Salem

9 S. Owusu

24 L. Kassa

99 E. Inbrum

53 L. Hazan

77 J. Cortes

97 M. Rakonjac

Coach · Ziv Arie

Substitutes

1 · D. Hevron

30 · O. Dadia

12 · I. Baruch

22 · B. Abdach

20 · I. Cohen

8 · D. Lee Yam

7 · K. C. Spence

10 · A. Lugassi

27 · Y. Koren

Our number · hapoel haifa winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

48% The market47%

Us48%

~~Market~~47%

We make Hapoel Haifa a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hapoel haifa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Haifa win	48%	47%	+1
Draw	26%	26%	0
Maccabi Petah Tikva win	26%	27%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	60%	−7
Both teams to score	56%	62%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	38%	−7
Hapoel Haifa or draw	74%	73%	+1
Hapoel Haifa clean sheet	32%	–	–
Maccabi Petah Tikva clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.1 6.2 4.1 1 9.2 12.2 6.5 2.6 2 8.2 9.3 5.3 2.1 3 4.6 5.1 3.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Haifa down, Maccabi Petah Tikva across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,234 Ligat Ha'al matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligat Ha'al matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.6% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.71 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Haifa at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi Petah Tikva away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Hapoel Haifa, 1.15 for Maccabi Petah Tikva. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~HAP 5–1 MAC · MAC 0–0 HAP · MAC 0–3 HAP · HAP 2–2 MAC

Form · last six in Ligat Ha'al

HAPOEL HAIFA

WDDDWL3–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–2

MACCABI PETAH TIKVA

DWWLLL0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	5	+12	15
2	Maccabi Haifa	5	+5	12
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	5	+7	10
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	5	+1	10
5	Beitar Jerusalem	5	−2	9
6	Hapoel Katamon	5	0	7
7	Ironi Tiberias	5	−1	7
8	Hapoel Haifa	5	+1	6
9	Maccabi Petah Tikva	5	−3	6
10	Maccabi Netanya	5	0	5
11	Bnei Sakhnin	5	−3	4
12	Hapoel Ramat Gan	5	−5	3
13	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	5	−6	3
14	Hapoel Petah Tikva	5	−6	3