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Hapoel Beer Sheva v Hapoel Katamon

Hapoel Beer Sheva

2–1Full time

Hapoel Katamon

Ligat Ha'al · SUN 18 OCT · Toto Turner Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:01

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1 Hapoel Katamon HAPOEL BEER SHEVA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Beer Sheva win~~65%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.191

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.130

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Beer Sheva win at 65%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hapoel Beer Sheva was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–22–14
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Beer Sheva v Hapoel Katamon
3′Hapoel Beer Sheva find the net on 3′. 0–0 · 64–22–14
4′We published Hapoel Beer Sheva at 65%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–10–4
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–0 Hapoel Katamon
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 65% at kick-off, 86% now
5′GOAL DISALLOWED · 5' Hapoel Beer Sheva
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 65% at kick-off, 64% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
36′Hapoel Katamon score on 35′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 25–29–46
36′We said Hapoel Beer Sheva at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–29–46
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–1 Hapoel Katamon
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 65% at kick-off, 25% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Hapoel Katamon win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Hapoel Beer Sheva win 25%)
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 25–29–46
38′We said Hapoel Beer Sheva at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–29–47
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–1 Hapoel Katamon
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Javon East · Off: Mohamad Abu Rumi
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–1 Hapoel Katamon
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Lucas de Souza Ventura · Off: Eilel Peretz
47′We said Hapoel Beer Sheva at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–51
53′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Forson Amankwah · Off: Lucas de Souza Ventura
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 65% at kick-off, 15% now
57′We said Hapoel Beer Sheva at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–29–57
58′We said Hapoel Beer Sheva at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–44–14
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–1 Hapoel Katamon
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 65% at kick-off, 42% now
59′Hapoel Beer Sheva level it on 58′ through Adrián Ugarriza. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–45–13
60′Hapoel Beer Sheva have had 10 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 12–28–59
60′GOAL DISALLOWED · 58' Adrián Ugarriza · Hapoel Beer Sheva
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 65% at kick-off, 12% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Hapoel Katamon · On: Zuberu Sharani · Off: Vitalie Damașcan
65′We said Hapoel Beer Sheva at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–27–64
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Igor Zlatanović · Off: Hamode Kanaan
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Ofek nadir · Hapoel Katamon
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hapoel Katamon · On: Li On Mizrahi · Off: N. Vrasana
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 65% at kick-off, 5% now
75′Hapoel Beer Sheva level it on 74′ through Igor Zlatanović. 1–1. 1–1 · 26–65–9
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–1 Hapoel Katamon
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 65% at kick-off, 26% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Hapoel Katamon win 9%)
76′Hapoel Beer Sheva have had 12 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 24–67–9
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' andrew idoko · Hapoel Katamon
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Hapoel Katamon · On: Hamza Mohammed · Off: Ilay Madmon
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Hapoel Katamon · On: nati shafrau · Off: andrew idoko
84′A red card for Hapoel Katamon on 82′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 12–83–5
84′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Ofek nadir · Hapoel Katamon
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 65% at kick-off, 12% now
85′We published Hapoel Beer Sheva at 65%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1 Hapoel Katamon
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Hapoel Beer Sheva win: 65% at kick-off, 96% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Hapoel Beer Sheva win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
86′Igor Zlatanović scores for Hapoel Beer Sheva on 84′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
87′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 96–4–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Ofir Davidzada · Hapoel Beer Sheva
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Adrián Ugarriza · Hapoel Beer Sheva
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' omer agvadish · Hapoel Katamon
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+6' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Amit Ohana · Off: Adrián Ugarriza
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1 Hapoel Katamon
FTHapoel Beer Sheva 2–1 Hapoel Katamon · Hapoel Beer Sheva win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hapoel Beer Sheva are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Beer Sheva 65%, draw 22%, Hapoel Katamon 14%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Beer Sheva v Hapoel KatamonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Beer Sheva win65%

Draw22%

Hapoel Katamon win14%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:15

RoundMatchday 7

VenueToto Turner Stadium

Line-ups

Hapoel Beer Sheva

4-3-3

Hapoel Katamon

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Hapoel Katamon

3Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 12 Oct · Ligat Ha'al

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	+3	13
9	Hapoel Katamon	6	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hapoel Beer Sheva

4-3-3

1 O. Marciano

27 Y. Stoyanov

4 M. Vítor

12 I. Rotman

13 O. Davidzada

7 E. Peretz

28 N. Yehoshua

8 M. Kna'an

45 M. Abu Rumi

90 A. Ugarriza

11 A. Ganah

Coach · R. Kojok

Substitutes

17 · A. Forson

20 · J. East

44 · D. Diop

2 · G. Mizrahi

19 · A. Ohana

5 · Pedro Amador

34 · M. Wolff

66 · I. Zlatanović

25 · Lucas Ventura

Hapoel Katamon

4-4-2

55 N. Zamir

16 O. Agvadish

21 Hilay Sharabi Melman

3 N. Malmud

20 O. Nadir

19 N. Vrasana

22 T. Haimovich

8 I. Madmon

25 A. Idoko

10 V. Damaşcan

91 C. Tiéhi

Coach · L. Zada

Substitutes

70 · S. Zuberu

14 · O. Abuhav

7 · O. Almagor

26 · I. Cohen

11 · Y. Distalfeld

1 · B. Gordin Anbary

18 · L. Mizrachi

31 · Hamza Mohammed

23 · Nati Shafrau

Our number · hapoel beer sheva winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:39 · locked at kick-off

65% The market71%

Us65%

~~Market~~71%

We make Hapoel Beer Sheva a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Beer Sheva v Hapoel Katamon~~2.04 – 0.83

~~Form · Ligat Ha'al this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 7~~4 v 9

~~The market · Hapoel Beer Sheva win~~71% · ours 65%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Beer Sheva win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Beer Sheva win	65%	71%	−6
Draw	22%	18%	+4
Hapoel Katamon win	14%	11%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	60%	−6
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	81%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	39%	−7
Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw	86%	89%	−3
Hapoel Beer Sheva clean sheet	44%	–	–
Hapoel Katamon clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.7%

0123450 6.5 4.1 1 11.0 10.2 4.0 2 11.7 9.6 4.0 3 8.0 6.5 2.7 4 4.1 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Beer Sheva down, Hapoel Katamon across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,246 Ligat Ha'al matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligat Ha'al matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Katamon away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva, 0.83 for Hapoel Katamon. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BEE 2–1 KAT · BEE 4–1 KAT · KAT 1–5 BEE · KAT 0–2 BEE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligat Ha'al this season · since 23 Aug

HAPOEL BEER SHEVA

WDLWWW2–1 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

HAPOEL KATAMON

LLWDWL2–5 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maccabi Haifa	7	+9	18
2	Maccabi Tel Aviv	6	+12	16
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	7	+10	16
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	+3	13
5	Beitar Jerusalem	6	+2	12
6	Maccabi Netanya	7	+1	9
7	Hapoel Haifa	7	0	9
8	Bnei Sakhnin	7	−1	8
9	Hapoel Katamon	6	−3	7
10	Maccabi Petah Tikva	7	−5	6
11	Hapoel Ramat Gan	7	−7	6
12	Hapoel Petah Tikva	7	−8	4
13	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	7	−9	3
14	Ironi Tiberias	7	−4	1