Bnei Sakhnin v Hapoel Petah Tikva prediction · Ligat Ha'al

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Bnei Sakhnin 2–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva HAPOEL PETAH TIKVA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Petah Tikva win~~35%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.678

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.630

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Petah Tikva win at 35%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Petah Tikva 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 33–32–35
1′KICK-OFF Bnei Sakhnin v Hapoel Petah Tikva
6′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Bnei Sakhnin
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Hapoel Petah Tikva win 32%)
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Stav Israeli · Hapoel Petah Tikva
31′We said Hapoel Petah Tikva at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
31′30′: Ahmed Ibrahim Salman on the scoresheet for Bnei Sakhnin, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–22–9
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 69–22–9
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Bnei Sakhnin 1–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Hapoel Petah Tikva win: 35% at kick-off, 9% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Bnei Sakhnin win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 44' Hapoel Petah Tikva · On: Hamidou Keyta · Off: Roee David
45′HALF-TIME Bnei Sakhnin 1–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva
47′SECOND HALF Bnei Sakhnin 1–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Hapoel Petah Tikva win: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 51' ori dahan · Bnei Sakhnin
56′We said Hapoel Petah Tikva at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Alex Moucketou-Moussounda · Hapoel Petah Tikva
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Yves Erick Bile · Hapoel Petah Tikva
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Hapoel Petah Tikva · On: Tomer Altman · Off: Stav Israeli
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Hapoel Petah Tikva · On: Euclides·Tavares Andrade · Off: Roei Levy
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Hapoel Petah Tikva · On: Noam Cohen · Off: Boni Amian
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Bnei Sakhnin · On: Loai Halaf · Off: Ahmed Ibrahim Salman
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Yazen Nassar · Hapoel Petah Tikva
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bnei Sakhnin · On: Jubayer Bushnak · Off: Ilay Hajaj
75′74′: Mathew Anim Cudjoe on the scoresheet for Bnei Sakhnin. 1–0 · 86–13–1
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Bnei Sakhnin 2–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva · Mathew Anim Cudjoe (assist Leeroy Owusu)
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Kimvuidi Keikie Karim · Hapoel Petah Tikva
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Hapoel Petah Tikva · On: Edmond Asante · Off: Kimvuidi Keikie Karim
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Or Israelov · Hapoel Petah Tikva
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Bnei Sakhnin · On: basil khuri · Off: Daniel Paraschiv
FTFULL TIME Bnei Sakhnin 2–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva
FTBnei Sakhnin 2–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva · Hapoel Petah Tikva win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hapoel Petah Tikva just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bnei Sakhnin 33%, draw 32%, Hapoel Petah Tikva 35%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Bnei Sakhnin v Hapoel Petah TikvaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bnei Sakhnin win33%

Draw32%

Hapoel Petah Tikva win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:15

RoundMatchday 7

VenueDoha Stadium

Line-ups

Bnei Sakhnin

4-4-2

Hapoel Petah Tikva

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bnei Sakhnin

Hapoel Petah Tikva

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligat Ha'al

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Bnei Sakhnin	6	−3	5
11	Hapoel Petah Tikva	6	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bnei Sakhnin

4-4-2

1 R. Bălbărău

13 L. Owusu

5 I. Abu Abaid

4 O. Dahan

92 Saná Gomes

10 M. Anim Cudjoe

6 A. Taha

8 M. Vorobjovas

28 I. Hagag

9 D. Paraschiv

29 A. Salman

Coach · Y. Abukasis

Substitutes

22 · M. Abu Nil

21 · M. Abu Riya

77 · A. Sefer

11 · J. Bushnaq

20 · M. Ganame

2 · M. Gantus

44 · A. Gnameh

16 · L. Halaf

24 · B. Khuri

Hapoel Petah Tikva

4-2-3-1

1 O. Katz

12 S. Israeli

5 A. Moucketou-Moussounda

20 O. Israelov

72 Y. Nassar

6 Etai Ehud

29 B. Gontran

7 R. Levy

16 R. David

26 K. Kimvuidi

9 E. Bille

Coach · O. Peretz

Substitutes

77 · Clé

8 · T. Altman

14 · E. Asante

15 · Nachman Yacov Vita Asal

28 · Noam Cohen

33 · Zohar Grinberg

11 · H. Keyta

18 · A. Mashiah

3 · H. Shalom

Our number · hapoel petah tikva winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

35% The market35%

Us35%

~~Market~~35%

We make Hapoel Petah Tikva a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bnei Sakhnin v Hapoel Petah Tikva~~1.02 – 1.06

~~Form · Ligat Ha'al this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 4~~10 v 11

~~The market · Hapoel Petah Tikva win~~35% · ours 35%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Petah Tikva win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bnei Sakhnin win	33%	35%	−2
Draw	32%	30%	+2
Hapoel Petah Tikva win	35%	35%	0
Over 2.5 goals	35%	42%	−7
Both teams to score	42%	49%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	62%	67%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	16%	23%	−7
Bnei Sakhnin or draw	65%	65%	0
Bnei Sakhnin clean sheet	35%	–	–
Hapoel Petah Tikva clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 13.8 12.2 7.0 2.5 1 11.7 14.3 7.1 2.5 2 6.5 6.8 3.6 3 2.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bnei Sakhnin down, Hapoel Petah Tikva across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,241 Ligat Ha'al matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligat Ha'al matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bnei Sakhnin at home: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Petah Tikva away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Bnei Sakhnin, 1.06 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~BNE 1–0 HAP · BNE 1–2 HAP · HAP 2–2 BNE · BNE 0–0 HAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligat Ha'al this season · since 22 Aug

BNEI SAKHNIN

DLLLWD0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–0

HAPOEL PETAH TIKVA

LWLLLD0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	6	+12	16
2	Maccabi Haifa	6	+8	15
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	6	+9	13
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	+3	13
5	Beitar Jerusalem	6	+2	12
6	Hapoel Haifa	6	+2	9
7	Hapoel Katamon	6	−3	7
8	Maccabi Netanya	6	0	6
9	Maccabi Petah Tikva	6	−4	6
10	Bnei Sakhnin	6	−3	5
11	Hapoel Petah Tikva	6	−6	4
12	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	6	−8	3
13	Hapoel Ramat Gan	6	−9	3
14	Ironi Tiberias	6	−3	1