Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa v Ironi Modi'in prediction · Liga Leumit

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 0–2 Ironi Modi'in MACCABI KABILIO JAFFA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win~~42%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.691

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.598

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–33
1′KICK-OFF Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa v Ironi Modi'in
45′HALF-TIME Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 0–1 Ironi Modi'in
46′SECOND HALF Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 0–1 Ironi Modi'in
47′A goal for Ironi Modi'in on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–66
47′We said Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–23–66
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 0–1 Ironi Modi'in
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win: 42% at kick-off, 10% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Ironi Modi'in win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win 10%)
51′We said Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
68′We said Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
75′Ironi Modi'in score on 74′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 0–2 Ironi Modi'in
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win: 42% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 0–2 Ironi Modi'in
FTMaccabi Kabilio Jaffa 0–2 Ironi Modi'in · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 42%, draw 26%, Ironi Modi'in 33%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa v Ironi Modi'inBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win42%

Draw26%

Ironi Modi'in win33%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Ironi Modi'in

4Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Leumit

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Leumit

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Ironi Modi'in	9	−4	8
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	9	−13	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi kabilio jaffa winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 05:39 · locked at kick-off

42% The market37%

Us42%

~~Market~~37%

We make Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa v Ironi Modi'in~~1.57 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~15 v 12

~~The market · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win~~37% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win	42%	37%	+5
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Ironi Modi'in win	33%	37%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Both teams to score	59%	60%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	36%	−2
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or draw	67%	63%	+4
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa clean sheet	26%	–	–
Ironi Modi'in clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.2 6.7 5.0 2.3 1 7.7 11.9 7.6 3.5 2 6.5 8.7 5.9 2.7 3 3.4 4.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa down, Ironi Modi'in across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,556 Liga Leumit matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at home: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ironi Modi'in away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, 1.37 for Ironi Modi'in. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~IRO 4–1 MAC · MAC 1–0 IRO · IRO 2–2 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 6 Sept

MACCABI KABILIO JAFFA

WLLLWL1–0 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–3

IRONI MODI'IN

DLLLWL0–0 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	9	+14	24
2	Bnei Yehuda	9	+13	23
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	9	+9	20
4	Hapoel Afula	9	+5	17
5	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	9	+1	17
6	Kiryat Yam SC	9	+10	16
7	Hapoel Ra'anana	9	+7	15
8	Kafr Qasim	9	+3	13
9	Maccabi Bnei Raina	9	0	13
10	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	9	−3	10
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	9	−2	9
12	Ironi Modi'in	9	−4	8
13	Maccabi Herzliya	9	−4	8
14	Hapoel Kfar Saba	9	−13	6
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	9	−13	6
16	Hapoel Acre	9	−23	1