Maccabi Herzliya v Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa prediction · Liga Leumit

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Maccabi Herzliya 0–1 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa MACCABI HERZLIYA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi Herzliya win~~43%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.727

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.908

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi Herzliya win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF Maccabi Herzliya v Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
2′Little has changed for our model: Maccabi Herzliya 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
34′Maccabi Herzliya are down to ten from 34′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 39–32–29
34′🟥 RED CARD · 34' Maccabi Herzliya
45′HALF-TIME Maccabi Herzliya 0–0 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
46′SECOND HALF Maccabi Herzliya 0–0 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Maccabi Herzliya win 36%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Maccabi Herzliya win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 32–43–25
57′We said Maccabi Herzliya at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–44–25
60′A goal for Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa on 60′. 0–0 · 30–47–24
60′We said Maccabi Herzliya at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–23–70
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Maccabi Herzliya 0–1 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Maccabi Herzliya win: 43% at kick-off, 7% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 47%)
69′We said Maccabi Herzliya at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Maccabi Herzliya win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
90′0–1 at the end. Our 43% on Maccabi Herzliya misses, and the record keeps it. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Maccabi Herzliya 0–1 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
FTMaccabi Herzliya 0–1 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa · Maccabi Herzliya win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maccabi Herzliya are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Herzliya 43%, draw 25%, Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 31%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Herzliya v Maccabi Kabilio JaffaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi Herzliya win43%

Draw25%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win31%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Herzliya

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Leumit

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Maccabi Herzliya	10	−4	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	10	−15	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi herzliya winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market51%

Us43%

~~Market~~51%

We make Maccabi Herzliya a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi Herzliya v Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa~~1.66 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 10 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 9 v 6~~13 v 15

~~The market · Maccabi Herzliya win~~51% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maccabi Herzliya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Herzliya win	43%	51%	−8
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win	31%	24%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	58%	53%	+5
Both teams to score	60%	56%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	81%	76%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	36%	33%	+3
Maccabi Herzliya or draw	69%	76%	−7
Maccabi Herzliya clean sheet	26%	–	–
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 5.9 6.0 4.6 2.1 1 7.4 11.7 7.4 3.4 2 6.6 8.9 6.0 2.8 3 3.7 4.9 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Herzliya down, Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,564 Liga Leumit matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.11 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi Herzliya at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Maccabi Herzliya, 1.37 for Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.11

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~HER 3–1 KAB · KAB 0–1 HER · HER 1–1 KAB · KAB 1–1 HER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 10 Sept

MACCABI HERZLIYA

WDLLLD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0

MACCABI KABILIO JAFFA

LLLWLL1–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	10	+14	25
2	Bnei Yehuda	10	+13	24
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	10	+9	21
4	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	10	+5	20
5	Kiryat Yam SC	10	+11	19
6	Hapoel Afula	10	+5	18
7	Hapoel Ra'anana	10	+7	16
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	10	0	14
9	Kafr Qasim	10	+2	13
10	Ironi Modi'in	10	−2	11
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	10	−2	10
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	10	−7	10
13	Maccabi Herzliya	10	−4	9
14	Hapoel Kfar Saba	10	−9	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	10	−15	6
16	Hapoel Acre	10	−27	1