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Maccabi Herzliya v Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

Maccabi Herzliya

1–2Full time

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

Liga Leumit · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 16:34

Maccabi Herzliya 1–2 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth MACCABI HERZLIYA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi Herzliya win~~48%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.844

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.903

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Maccabi Herzliya win48%

Draw26%

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi herzliya winPublished 9 Oct 14:02

48% The market50%

Us48%

~~Market~~50%

We make Maccabi Herzliya a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · maccabi herzliya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Herzliya win	48%	50%	−2
Draw	26%	27%	0
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Both teams to score	51%	51%	0
Over 1.5 goals	74%	71%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Maccabi Herzliya or draw	74%	76%	−2
Maccabi Herzliya clean sheet	35%	–	–
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.4 7.2 4.3 1 10.6 12.4 6.3 2.3 2 8.6 8.9 4.7 3 4.6 4.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Herzliya down, Maccabi Ahi Nazareth across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,548 Liga Leumit matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Maccabi Herzliya at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi Ahi Nazareth away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Maccabi Herzliya, 1.07 for Maccabi Ahi Nazareth. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit

MACCABI HERZLIYA

LDWDLL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

MACCABI AHI NAZARETH

WLDWLL2–1 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	8	+12	21
2	Bnei Yehuda	8	+12	20
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	8	+6	17
4	Kiryat Yam SC	8	+10	15
5	Hapoel Ra'anana	8	+8	15
6	Hapoel Afula	8	+4	14
7	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	8	0	14
8	Kafr Qasim	8	+4	13
9	Maccabi Bnei Raina	8	0	12
10	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	8	−2	8
11	Ironi Modi'in	8	−3	8
12	Maccabi Herzliya	8	−3	8
13	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	8	−4	7
14	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	8	−10	6
15	Hapoel Kfar Saba	8	−11	6
16	Hapoel Acre	8	−23	0