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Maccabi Bnei Raina v Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1–1Full time

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Liga Leumit · MON 19 OCT · Green Stadium

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Maccabi Bnei Raina 1–1 Hapoel Rishon LeZion MACCABI BNEI RAINA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Maccabi Bnei Raina win~~38%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.800

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.809

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi Bnei Raina win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Maccabi Bnei Raina 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
1′KICK-OFF Maccabi Bnei Raina v Hapoel Rishon LeZion
13′A goal for Maccabi Bnei Raina on 13′. 0–0 · 37–29–34
13′We said Maccabi Bnei Raina at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–20–15
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Maccabi Bnei Raina 1–0 Hapoel Rishon LeZion
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Maccabi Bnei Raina win: 38% at kick-off, 66% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Maccabi Bnei Raina win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 68–21–12
41′We said Maccabi Bnei Raina at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
42′Hapoel Rishon LeZion find the net on 41′. 1–0 · 70–21–9
43′⚽ GOAL · 41' Maccabi Bnei Raina 1–1 Hapoel Rishon LeZion
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Maccabi Bnei Raina win: 38% at kick-off, 32% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Maccabi Bnei Raina win 70%)
45′HALF-TIME Maccabi Bnei Raina 1–1 Hapoel Rishon LeZion
46′SECOND HALF Maccabi Bnei Raina 1–1 Hapoel Rishon LeZion
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Maccabi Bnei Raina win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
60′We said Maccabi Bnei Raina at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–49–25
64′Maccabi Bnei Raina are down to ten from 63′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 24–53–23
64′We said Maccabi Bnei Raina at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–53–23
64′🟥 RED CARD · 63' Maccabi Bnei Raina
72′We said Maccabi Bnei Raina at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–18
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Maccabi Bnei Raina win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
78′We said Maccabi Bnei Raina at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
83′We said Maccabi Bnei Raina at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Maccabi Bnei Raina win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
90′We said Maccabi Bnei Raina at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–91–4
90′1–1 at the end. Our 38% on Maccabi Bnei Raina misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Maccabi Bnei Raina 1–1 Hapoel Rishon LeZion
FTMaccabi Bnei Raina 1–1 Hapoel Rishon LeZion · Maccabi Bnei Raina win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Maccabi Bnei Raina just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Bnei Raina 38%, draw 27%, Hapoel Rishon LeZion 35%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Bnei Raina v Hapoel Rishon LeZionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi Bnei Raina win38%

Draw27%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion win35%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueGreen Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Bnei Raina

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

10Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Leumit

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Leumit

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	9	+9	20
9	Maccabi Bnei Raina	9	0	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi bnei raina winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

38% The market37%

Us38%

~~Market~~37%

We make Maccabi Bnei Raina a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi Bnei Raina v Hapoel Rishon LeZion~~1.41 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 20~~9 v 3

~~The market · Maccabi Bnei Raina win~~37% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maccabi Bnei Raina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Bnei Raina win	38%	37%	+1
Draw	27%	27%	0
Hapoel Rishon LeZion win	35%	37%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	55%	60%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	35%	−5
Maccabi Bnei Raina or draw	65%	63%	+2
Maccabi Bnei Raina clean sheet	27%	–	–
Hapoel Rishon LeZion clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.7 7.9 5.8 2.6 1 8.3 12.6 7.8 3.6 2 6.3 8.2 5.4 2.5 3 3.0 3.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Bnei Raina down, Hapoel Rishon LeZion across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,561 Liga Leumit matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.7% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi Bnei Raina at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Rishon LeZion away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Maccabi Bnei Raina, 1.34 for Hapoel Rishon LeZion. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~HAP 0–3 MAC · MAC 2–0 HAP · HAP 1–1 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 6 Sept

MACCABI BNEI RAINA

WWWLLD2–1 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

HAPOEL RISHON LEZION

DWLWDW0–0 · 4–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	10	+14	25
2	Bnei Yehuda	9	+13	23
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	9	+9	20
4	Kiryat Yam SC	10	+11	19
5	Hapoel Afula	10	+5	18
6	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	9	+1	17
7	Hapoel Ra'anana	9	+7	15
8	Kafr Qasim	10	+2	13
9	Maccabi Bnei Raina	9	0	13
10	Ironi Modi'in	10	−2	11
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	10	−2	10
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	10	−7	10
13	Maccabi Herzliya	10	−4	9
14	Hapoel Kfar Saba	10	−9	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	10	−15	6
16	Hapoel Acre	9	−23	1