Maccabi Ahi Nazareth v Kafr Qasim prediction · Liga Leumit

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Maccabi Ahi NazarethDrawKafr Qasim

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kafr Qasim 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kafr Qasim are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 30%, draw 29%, Kafr Qasim 40%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Ahi Nazareth v Kafr QasimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win30%

Draw29%

Kafr Qasim win40%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

Kafr Qasim

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga Leumit

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Kafr Qasim	11	+1	13
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	11	−7	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kafr qasim winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Kafr Qasim a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth v Kafr Qasim~~1.06 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 17 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 13~~12 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win	30%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Kafr Qasim win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth or draw	60%	–	–
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth clean sheet	29%	–	–
Kafr Qasim clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.9 11.5 7.8 3.4 1 9.5 13.5 8.0 3.5 2 5.5 6.8 4.3 3 2.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Ahi Nazareth down, Kafr Qasim across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,572 Liga Leumit matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kafr Qasim away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Maccabi Ahi Nazareth, 1.27 for Kafr Qasim. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~KAF 1–1 MAC · KAF 4–0 MAC · MAC 1–0 KAF · KAF 2–2 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 17 Sept

MACCABI AHI NAZARETH

WLLWLD1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–2

KAFR QASIM

WWWLLL4–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	11	+15	28
2	Bnei Yehuda	11	+17	27
3	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	11	+8	23
4	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	11	+6	21
5	Hapoel Ra'anana	11	+8	19
6	Kiryat Yam SC	11	+7	19
7	Hapoel Afula	11	+3	18
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	11	+6	17
9	Kafr Qasim	11	+1	13
10	Hapoel Kfar Saba	11	−7	12
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	11	−2	11
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	11	−7	11
13	Ironi Modi'in	11	−8	11
14	Maccabi Herzliya	11	−5	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	11	−14	9
16	Hapoel Acre	11	−28	1