Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › Liga Leumit › Maccabi Ahi Nazareth v Hapoel Kfar Saba

Back
Israel flag

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth v Hapoel Kfar Saba

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
0–4Full time
Hapoel Kfar Saba

Liga Leumit · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0–4 Hapoel Kfar Saba HAPOEL KFAR SABA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hapoel Kfar Saba win37%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.601
The market’s Brier score0.625

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Kfar Saba win at 37%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Kfar Saba 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 37–26–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Maccabi Ahi Nazareth v Hapoel Kfar Saba
  4. 36′A goal for Hapoel Kfar Saba on 36′. 0–0 · 32–35–33
  5. 37′We said Hapoel Kfar Saba at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 10–22–68
  6. 37′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–68
  7. 37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0–1 Hapoel Kfar Saba
  8. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Hapoel Kfar Saba win: 37% at kick-off, 68% now
  9. 41′38′: Y. Brosh on the scoresheet for Hapoel Kfar Saba, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–69
  10. 45′We said Hapoel Kfar Saba at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–22–70
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0–1 Hapoel Kfar Saba
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0–1 Hapoel Kfar Saba
  13. 60′We said Hapoel Kfar Saba at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
  14. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Hapoel Kfar Saba win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
  15. 70′We said Hapoel Kfar Saba at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  16. 77′We said Hapoel Kfar Saba at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 1–14–85
  17. 78′We said Hapoel Kfar Saba at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  18. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0–2 Hapoel Kfar Saba
  19. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Hapoel Kfar Saba win: 37% at kick-off, 99% now
  20. 79′Hapoel Kfar Saba find the net on 78′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  21. 82′Maccabi Ahi Nazareth are down to ten from 82′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  22. 82′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
  23. 83′We said Hapoel Kfar Saba at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  24. 84′A goal for Hapoel Kfar Saba on 83′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  25. 84′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  26. 84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0–3 Hapoel Kfar Saba
  27. 87′Hapoel Kfar Saba find the net on 87′. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  28. 87′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  29. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0–4 Hapoel Kfar Saba
  30. FTFULL TIME Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0–4 Hapoel Kfar Saba
  31. FTMaccabi Ahi Nazareth 0–4 Hapoel Kfar Saba · Hapoel Kfar Saba win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hapoel Kfar Saba just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 36%, draw 27%, Hapoel Kfar Saba 37%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Ahi Nazareth v Hapoel Kfar SabaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win36%
Draw27%
Hapoel Kfar Saba win37%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

Hapoel Kfar Saba

7Days since last match4

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Leumit

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Leumit

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Maccabi Ahi Nazareth9−310
14Hapoel Kfar Saba9−136

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel kfar saba winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
37% The market36%
Us37%
Market36%

We make Hapoel Kfar Saba a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Maccabi Ahi Nazareth v Hapoel Kfar Saba1.37 – 1.38
Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 6 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 10 v 610 v 14
The market · Hapoel Kfar Saba win36% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 10 OCT 03:5616 OCT 13:26
Our probability · Hapoel Kfar Saba win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win36%37%−1
Draw27%28%−1
Hapoel Kfar Saba win37%36%+1
Over 2.5 goals51%54%−3
Both teams to score55%59%−4
Over 1.5 goals76%77%−1
Over 3.5 goals30%34%−4
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth or draw63%64%−1
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth clean sheet26%––
Hapoel Kfar Saba clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 7.5 8.2 6.1 2.9 1 8.2 12.5 8.0 3.8 2 6.0 8.0 5.4 2.5 3 2.8 3.7 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Ahi Nazareth down, Hapoel Kfar Saba across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.75
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsHAP 0–2 MAC · MAC 2–3 HAP · HAP 0–1 MAC · MAC 2–1 HAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 6 Sept

MACCABI AHI NAZARETH

LDWLLW1–2 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

HAPOEL KFAR SABA

LWLLLL1–6 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ashdod9+1424
2Bnei Yehuda9+1323
3Hapoel Rishon LeZion9+920
4Hapoel Afula9+517
5Hapoel Kfar Shalem9+117
6Kiryat Yam SC9+1016
7Hapoel Ra'anana9+715
8Kafr Qasim9+313
9Maccabi Bnei Raina9013
10Maccabi Ahi Nazareth9−310
11Maccabi Kiryat Gat9−29
12Ironi Modi'in9−48
13Maccabi Herzliya9−48
14Hapoel Kfar Saba9−136
15Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa9−136
16Hapoel Acre9−231

The competition's standings before kick-off.