Kiryat Yam SC v Kafr Qasim prediction · Liga Leumit

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59

Kiryat Yam SC 2–1 Kafr Qasim KIRYAT YAM SC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kiryat Yam SC win~~47%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.415

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.357

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kiryat Yam SC win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kiryat Yam SC was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Kiryat Yam SC v Kafr Qasim
6′Kiryat Yam SC score on 6′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
6′We published Kiryat Yam SC at 47%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Kiryat Yam SC 1–0 Kafr Qasim
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Kiryat Yam SC win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
11′We published Kiryat Yam SC at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–9
18′Kiryat Yam SC find the net on 18′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Kiryat Yam SC 2–0 Kafr Qasim
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Kiryat Yam SC win: 47% at kick-off, 92% now
19′We published Kiryat Yam SC at 47%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
42′A goal for Kafr Qasim on 41′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 77–18–5
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Kiryat Yam SC 2–1 Kafr Qasim
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Kiryat Yam SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
43′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 77–18–5
45′HALF-TIME Kiryat Yam SC 2–1 Kafr Qasim
46′S. Marab scores for Kafr Qasim on 42′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 78–17–5
46′SECOND HALF Kiryat Yam SC 2–1 Kafr Qasim
55′We published Kiryat Yam SC at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–4
70′We published Kiryat Yam SC at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Kiryat Yam SC win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
86′We published Kiryat Yam SC at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Kiryat Yam SC win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Kiryat Yam SC 2–1 Kafr Qasim
FTKiryat Yam SC 2–1 Kafr Qasim · Kiryat Yam SC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kiryat Yam SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kiryat Yam SC 47%, draw 27%, Kafr Qasim 25%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Kiryat Yam SC v Kafr QasimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Kiryat Yam SC win47%

Draw27%

Kafr Qasim win25%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kiryat Yam SC

Kafr Qasim

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Leumit

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Kiryat Yam SC	9	+10	16
8	Kafr Qasim	9	+3	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kiryat yam sc winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

47% The market51%

Us47%

~~Market~~51%

We make Kiryat Yam SC a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kiryat Yam SC v Kafr Qasim~~1.51 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 13~~6 v 8

~~The market · Kiryat Yam SC win~~51% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kiryat Yam SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kiryat Yam SC win	47%	51%	−4
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Kafr Qasim win	25%	24%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	55%	−9
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	77%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	34%	−9
Kiryat Yam SC or draw	75%	76%	−1
Kiryat Yam SC clean sheet	36%	–	–
Kafr Qasim clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.9 7.5 4.3 1 11.3 12.8 6.2 2.2 2 8.9 9.0 4.6 3 4.5 4.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kiryat Yam SC down, Kafr Qasim across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,556 Liga Leumit matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kiryat Yam SC at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kafr Qasim away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Kiryat Yam SC, 1.03 for Kafr Qasim. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KIR 1–1 KAF · KAF 1–0 KIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 6 Sept

KIRYAT YAM SC

WLWWWD5–0 · 2–4 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–2

KAFR QASIM

DLWWWL0–0 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	9	+14	24
2	Bnei Yehuda	9	+13	23
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	9	+9	20
4	Hapoel Afula	9	+5	17
5	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	9	+1	17
6	Kiryat Yam SC	9	+10	16
7	Hapoel Ra'anana	9	+7	15
8	Kafr Qasim	9	+3	13
9	Maccabi Bnei Raina	9	0	13
10	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	9	−3	10
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	9	−2	9
12	Ironi Modi'in	9	−4	8
13	Maccabi Herzliya	9	−4	8
14	Hapoel Kfar Saba	9	−13	6
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	9	−13	6
16	Hapoel Acre	9	−23	1