Kafr Qasim v Ashdod prediction · Liga Leumit

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Kafr Qasim 0–1 Ashdod ASHDOD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ashdod win~~46%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.432

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.257

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ashdod win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ashdod was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 25–28–46
1′KICK-OFF Kafr Qasim v Ashdod
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ashdod win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Ashdod win 39%)
45′HALF-TIME Kafr Qasim 0–0 Ashdod
46′SECOND HALF Kafr Qasim 0–0 Ashdod
50′We said Ashdod at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 21–44–34
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 20–48–32
60′We said Ashdod at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–52–29
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Ashdod win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
68′We said Ashdod at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–60–24
74′We said Ashdod at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 13–68–19
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Ashdod win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
79′We said Ashdod at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 10–76–14
84′We said Ashdod at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Ashdod win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
91′Ashdod score on 90′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–3–97
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Kafr Qasim 0–1 Ashdod
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Ashdod win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Ashdod win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 92%)
92′We published Ashdod at 46%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–1 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Kafr Qasim 0–1 Ashdod
FTKafr Qasim 0–1 Ashdod · Ashdod win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ashdod are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kafr Qasim 25%, draw 28%, Ashdod 46%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Kafr Qasim v AshdodBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kafr Qasim win25%

Draw28%

Ashdod win46%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kafr Qasim

Ashdod

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Leumit

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ashdod winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:19 · locked at kick-off

46% The market59%

Us46%

~~Market~~59%

We make Ashdod a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kafr Qasim v Ashdod~~1.00 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 14 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 25~~9 v 1

~~The market · Ashdod win~~59% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ashdod win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kafr Qasim win	25%	18%	+7
Draw	28%	23%	+5
Ashdod win	46%	59%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	44%	57%	−13
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	71%	79%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	23%	36%	−13
Kafr Qasim or draw	54%	41%	+13
Kafr Qasim clean sheet	24%	–	–
Ashdod clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.8 11.6 9.0 4.4 1 7.8 13.2 8.8 4.3 2 4.4 6.2 4.4 2.2 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kafr Qasim down, Ashdod across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,564 Liga Leumit matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Kafr Qasim at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ashdod away: 2.60 scored, 1.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Kafr Qasim, 1.45 for Ashdod. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 14 Sept

KAFR QASIM

LWWWLL0–1 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

ASHDOD

WWWWWD4–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	10	+14	25
2	Bnei Yehuda	10	+13	24
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	10	+9	21
4	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	10	+5	20
5	Kiryat Yam SC	10	+11	19
6	Hapoel Afula	10	+5	18
7	Hapoel Ra'anana	10	+7	16
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	10	0	14
9	Kafr Qasim	10	+2	13
10	Ironi Modi'in	10	−2	11
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	10	−2	10
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	10	−7	10
13	Maccabi Herzliya	10	−4	9
14	Hapoel Kfar Saba	10	−9	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	10	−15	6
16	Hapoel Acre	10	−27	1