Ironi Modi'in v Maccabi Bnei Raina prediction · Liga Leumit

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Ironi Modi'in 0–6 Maccabi Bnei Raina MACCABI BNEI RAINA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi Bnei Raina win~~37%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.596

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.498

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi Bnei Raina win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF Ironi Modi'in v Maccabi Bnei Raina
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Ironi Modi'in 0–1 Maccabi Bnei Raina
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Maccabi Bnei Raina win: 37% at kick-off, 66% now
2′Maccabi Bnei Raina score on 1′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 15–19–66
3′Maccabi Bnei Raina find the net on 2′. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–10–85
3′We said Maccabi Bnei Raina at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–2 · 5–10–85
3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Ironi Modi'in 0–2 Maccabi Bnei Raina
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Maccabi Bnei Raina win: 37% at kick-off, 85% now
12′A goal for Maccabi Bnei Raina on 12′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–96
12′We said Maccabi Bnei Raina at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–3 · 1–3–96
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Maccabi Bnei Raina win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Ironi Modi'in 0–3 Maccabi Bnei Raina
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Maccabi Bnei Raina win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 1–2–97
34′Maccabi Bnei Raina score on 34′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
34′We said Maccabi Bnei Raina at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
34′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Ironi Modi'in 0–4 Maccabi Bnei Raina
45′HALF-TIME Ironi Modi'in 0–4 Maccabi Bnei Raina
46′SECOND HALF Ironi Modi'in 0–4 Maccabi Bnei Raina
65′Maccabi Bnei Raina find the net on 65′. 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Ironi Modi'in 0–5 Maccabi Bnei Raina
66′5 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
87′A goal for Maccabi Bnei Raina on 86′ — 0–6. 0–6 · 0–0–100
87′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–6 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Ironi Modi'in 0–6 Maccabi Bnei Raina
FTFULL TIME Ironi Modi'in 0–6 Maccabi Bnei Raina
FTIroni Modi'in 0–6 Maccabi Bnei Raina · Maccabi Bnei Raina win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Maccabi Bnei Raina just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ironi Modi'in 34%, draw 29%, Maccabi Bnei Raina 37%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Ironi Modi'in v Maccabi Bnei RainaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ironi Modi'in win34%

Draw29%

Maccabi Bnei Raina win37%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ironi Modi'in

Maccabi Bnei Raina

7Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Leumit

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Leumit

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	10	0	14
10	Ironi Modi'in	10	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi bnei raina winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

37% The market42%

Us37%

~~Market~~42%

We make Maccabi Bnei Raina a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ironi Modi'in v Maccabi Bnei Raina~~1.21 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 10 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 14~~10 v 8

~~The market · Maccabi Bnei Raina win~~42% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maccabi Bnei Raina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ironi Modi'in win	34%	31%	+3
Draw	29%	26%	+3
Maccabi Bnei Raina win	37%	42%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	45%	57%	−12
Both teams to score	50%	60%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	71%	78%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	24%	37%	−13
Ironi Modi'in or draw	63%	58%	+5
Ironi Modi'in clean sheet	29%	–	–
Maccabi Bnei Raina clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.8 9.8 6.8 2.9 1 9.3 13.4 7.9 3.4 2 6.1 7.5 4.7 2.0 3 2.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ironi Modi'in down, Maccabi Bnei Raina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,564 Liga Leumit matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Ironi Modi'in at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi Bnei Raina away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Ironi Modi'in, 1.27 for Maccabi Bnei Raina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 10 Sept

IRONI MODI'IN

LLLWLW2–4 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

MACCABI BNEI RAINA

WWLLDD4–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	10	+14	25
2	Bnei Yehuda	10	+13	24
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	10	+9	21
4	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	10	+5	20
5	Kiryat Yam SC	10	+11	19
6	Hapoel Afula	10	+5	18
7	Hapoel Ra'anana	10	+7	16
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	10	0	14
9	Kafr Qasim	10	+2	13
10	Ironi Modi'in	10	−2	11
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	10	−2	10
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	10	−7	10
13	Maccabi Herzliya	10	−4	9
14	Hapoel Kfar Saba	10	−9	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	10	−15	6
16	Hapoel Acre	10	−27	1