Hapoel Rishon LeZion v Hapoel Kfar Shalem prediction · Liga Leumit

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 0–3 Hapoel Kfar Shalem HAPOEL RISHON LEZION WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Rishon LeZion win~~39%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.582

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.841

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Rishon LeZion win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Rishon LeZion v Hapoel Kfar Shalem
2′Much as we predicted: Hapoel Rishon LeZion was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–23–38
37′A red card for Hapoel Rishon LeZion on 37′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 35–30–35
37′🟥 RED CARD · 37' Hapoel Rishon LeZion
40′A goal for Hapoel Kfar Shalem on 40′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–21–65
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Hapoel Rishon LeZion 0–1 Hapoel Kfar Shalem
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Hapoel Rishon LeZion win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Hapoel Rishon LeZion win 35%)
41′We said Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–21–66
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Rishon LeZion 0–1 Hapoel Kfar Shalem
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Rishon LeZion 0–1 Hapoel Kfar Shalem
55′We said Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Hapoel Rishon LeZion win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
71′We said Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–77
82′Hapoel Kfar Shalem score on 82′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Hapoel Rishon LeZion 0–2 Hapoel Kfar Shalem
92′Hapoel Kfar Shalem find the net on 90′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Hapoel Rishon LeZion 0–3 Hapoel Kfar Shalem
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Rishon LeZion 0–3 Hapoel Kfar Shalem
FTHapoel Rishon LeZion 0–3 Hapoel Kfar Shalem · Hapoel Rishon LeZion win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hapoel Rishon LeZion just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Rishon LeZion 39%, draw 23%, Hapoel Kfar Shalem 38%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Rishon LeZion v Hapoel Kfar ShalemBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Rishon LeZion win39%

Draw23%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem win38%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

4Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Leumit

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	10	+9	21
4	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	10	+5	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel rishon lezion winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

39% The market50%

Us39%

~~Market~~50%

We make Hapoel Rishon LeZion a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Rishon LeZion v Hapoel Kfar Shalem~~1.83 – 1.82

~~Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 10 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 21 v 20~~3 v 4

~~The market · Hapoel Rishon LeZion win~~50% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Rishon LeZion win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Rishon LeZion win	39%	50%	−11
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Hapoel Kfar Shalem win	38%	27%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	70%	66%	+4
Both teams to score	70%	66%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	88%	83%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	49%	47%	+2
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw	62%	73%	−11
Hapoel Rishon LeZion clean sheet	17%	–	–
Hapoel Kfar Shalem clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.5 4.3 4.4 2.7 1 4.3 9.3 7.7 4.7 2.2 2 4.4 7.7 6.9 4.2 3 2.7 4.7 4.2 2.6 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Rishon LeZion down, Hapoel Kfar Shalem across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,564 Liga Leumit matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Kfar Shalem away: 2.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Hapoel Rishon LeZion, 1.82 for Hapoel Kfar Shalem. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~RIS 2–6 KFA · KFA 2–3 RIS · RIS 0–1 KFA · RIS 1–1 KFA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 10 Sept

HAPOEL RISHON LEZION

WLWDWD4–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

HAPOEL KFAR SHALEM

DDWWWW3–3 · 3–3 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	10	+14	25
2	Bnei Yehuda	10	+13	24
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	10	+9	21
4	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	10	+5	20
5	Kiryat Yam SC	10	+11	19
6	Hapoel Afula	10	+5	18
7	Hapoel Ra'anana	10	+7	16
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	10	0	14
9	Kafr Qasim	10	+2	13
10	Ironi Modi'in	10	−2	11
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	10	−2	10
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	10	−7	10
13	Maccabi Herzliya	10	−4	9
14	Hapoel Kfar Saba	10	−9	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	10	−15	6
16	Hapoel Acre	10	−27	1