Hapoel Ra'anana v Bnei Yehuda prediction · Liga Leumit

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Hapoel Ra'anana 1–1 Bnei Yehuda BNEI YEHUDA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Bnei Yehuda win~~40%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.780

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.913

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bnei Yehuda win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bnei Yehuda 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 32–28–40
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Ra'anana v Bnei Yehuda
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Bnei Yehuda win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Ra'anana 0–0 Bnei Yehuda
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Ra'anana 0–0 Bnei Yehuda
47′A goal for Bnei Yehuda on 47′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–20–73
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Hapoel Ra'anana 0–1 Bnei Yehuda
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Bnei Yehuda win: 40% at kick-off, 73% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Bnei Yehuda win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 42%)
48′We said Bnei Yehuda at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 7–20–74
48′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 7–20–74
52′We said Bnei Yehuda at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
66′We said Bnei Yehuda at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Bnei Yehuda win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
74′We said Bnei Yehuda at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
75′Hapoel Ra'anana score on 75′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 15–68–17
75′We said Bnei Yehuda at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 15–68–17
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Hapoel Ra'anana 1–1 Bnei Yehuda
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Bnei Yehuda win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Bnei Yehuda win 85%)
78′We said Bnei Yehuda at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–73–14
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Bnei Yehuda win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
82′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Hapoel Ra'anana
83′Hapoel Ra'anana are down to ten from 82′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 8–83–9
83′We said Bnei Yehuda at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
90′We said Bnei Yehuda at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Ra'anana 1–1 Bnei Yehuda
FTHapoel Ra'anana 1–1 Bnei Yehuda · Bnei Yehuda win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bnei Yehuda are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Ra'anana 32%, draw 28%, Bnei Yehuda 40%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Ra'anana v Bnei YehudaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Ra'anana win32%

Draw28%

Bnei Yehuda win40%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Ra'anana

Bnei Yehuda

7Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Leumit

Last match: 12 Oct · State Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bnei Yehuda	9	+13	23
7	Hapoel Ra'anana	9	+7	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bnei yehuda winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

40% The market54%

Us40%

~~Market~~54%

We make Bnei Yehuda a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Ra'anana v Bnei Yehuda~~1.21 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 15 v 23~~7 v 2

~~The market · Bnei Yehuda win~~54% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bnei Yehuda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Ra'anana win	32%	21%	+11
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Bnei Yehuda win	40%	54%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	47%	56%	−9
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	26%	36%	−10
Hapoel Ra'anana or draw	60%	46%	+14
Hapoel Ra'anana clean sheet	26%	–	–
Bnei Yehuda clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.7 9.6 7.1 3.3 1 8.4 13.2 8.4 3.9 2 5.6 7.4 5.0 2.3 3 2.3 3.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Ra'anana down, Bnei Yehuda across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,561 Liga Leumit matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.7% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Ra'anana at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bnei Yehuda away: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Hapoel Ra'anana, 1.37 for Bnei Yehuda. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BNE 1–0 HAP · HAP 1–1 BNE · BNE 0–1 HAP · HAP 0–1 BNE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 6 Sept

HAPOEL RA'ANANA

WWLWLL6–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

BNEI YEHUDA

DWDWWW0–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	10	+14	25
2	Bnei Yehuda	9	+13	23
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	9	+9	20
4	Kiryat Yam SC	10	+11	19
5	Hapoel Afula	10	+5	18
6	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	9	+1	17
7	Hapoel Ra'anana	9	+7	15
8	Kafr Qasim	10	+2	13
9	Maccabi Bnei Raina	9	0	13
10	Ironi Modi'in	10	−2	11
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	10	−2	10
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	10	−7	10
13	Maccabi Herzliya	10	−4	9
14	Hapoel Kfar Saba	10	−9	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	10	−15	6
16	Hapoel Acre	9	−23	1